Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:25 pm

For the past two seasons, I’ve kept a blog on these boards of my thoughts as I’ve chased the NFBC Championship along with hundreds of my fellow fantasy sports colleagues. I started the blog in September 2010 after a week for the ages and gift from the Fantasy Gods pushed me from being all but completely out of the running all the way up to 2nd and 6th place respectively in the NFBC and WCOFB overalls. Being only my second season in high stakes, never in a position like that previously, and suddenly thrust into longshot challenges for overall championships, I was filled with a combination of utter excitement and extreme angst. I needed an outlet, found it on these boards, and started writing and writing and writing. I added to the blog daily with my strategies in FAAB and setting lineups as I tried to chase down the leaders, as well as my emotional ups and downs dependent upon the fluctuating standings, but also wrote of my thoughts of the contests themselves, my fellow players, life in general, basically anything that came to my head :). I wrote and wrote and wrote until the season ended. It added to the fun even as I fell well short of catching the overall leaders and eventual winners, the Greats Jupinka and Chad, and even as I dropped from 2nd to 4th in the NFBC on the very last day of the season. It was still a blast and easily the most exciting few weeks and best experiences I’ve ever had in this hobby.

Last season, I continued the blog. However, my entries were more intermittent, my thoughts more filled with frustration. Some bad moves (Ogando anyone), the non-stop injuries suffered by my squads along with everyone else’s in the season of injury, but most of all the WCOFF/WCOFB debacle that eventually resulted in over $67K being stolen from me made last season much less satisfying, much less enjoyable, even beyond some finishes that I was very proud of.

However, a new season is upon us, a fresh start. I’ve decided with the new season, I would continue this blog, but start it on a new thread, again a fresh start. I’ve also decided to start writing early this year to document my thoughts heading towards the live draft season and about my drafts. I’m very excited by the season ahead, as excited by any new season since my first in the NFBC, my first in high stakes back in ’09. I will be drafting the NFBC in Vegas for the first time and can not wait to be in the center of it all this year and to meet Greg and so many of the players I’ve befriended on these boards. I’ll also be part of some exciting and prestigious drafts that I’ve never been able to take part in prior because of their Vegas only location. The Diamond, the Ultimate Auction, the AL Auction, leagues I’ve always wanted to be part of, but until this season couldn’t make happen. This year I was able to make it happen and decided if I was going to do Sin City this time, I was going to do it right. :) Throw in the MtM Super in Mahwah (otherwise known as Sin City East :)), a pair of Mains, a pair of XII’s, the NFBCK Keeper league, and Max’s 1000 Slow and this is the penultimate fantasy baseball season for me. I better not screw it up, or it will be the one and only penultimate season for me. :? I have 12 teams in total this year when including a 150 Slow and Fast/Slow both drafted last month and 9 of them are FAAB, a drop from the seventeen I had last season with all 17 FAAB :shock: , in keeping to the promise I made myself to cut down on leagues and provide more focus to the teams I do have, oh and lest I forget more focus to my family as well :). 2012, 12 teams, and for the first time, all NFBC. Works for me, kinda poetic, and hopefully a Lucky Dozen.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Roy's Outlaws » Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:42 pm

Hey Glenn, with all those teams going you better get to bed and not be up this late going into the season . you are going to need your rest now ,because once you get to the MtM Super - sleep is over for u till you get back from vegas. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:56 am

Sleep is overrated my friend. As far as sleeping once my Vegas trip starts, that's what the plane is for. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Red Sox Nation- » Thu Mar 08, 2012 6:43 pm

17 FAAB teams last year along with working a full time job and maintaining a family. Wow- that's impressive. I feel tapped out with 5 FAAB leagues. Thankfully you don't have to worry about following the Mets this season. That should save some time for you. jk Best of luck!

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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Fri Mar 09, 2012 8:33 pm

Thanks Jason. Yeah, 17 FAAB was a bit much.

It's hard to believe that it was only 2007 when I wasn't even playing fantasy baseball because my first local league had disbanded. In 2008, a colleague at work hooked me up with a spot in his local league for my one and only team that year. At the time, I had never had more than one team in any year. However things changed drastically the next year. 2009 was when I discovered national contests such as the NFBC and CDM and my total number of teams climbed all the way to 6. From there it was off to the races. Even though I gave up my local league in 2010, I added NFBC pre-season drafts and the WCOFB and with the NFBC adding its second weekend of live drafts, before you knew it I was up to 15 total leagues, 13 of them FAAB. Last year I fully intended on paring down and managed to cut my annual CDM team and any slow drafts from my agenda. However, I ended up jumping in a few unaffiliated private leagues and voila, 17 teams, all FAAB. :roll: Addiction's a bitch. I suppose that's a similar track to how someone goes from his first beer to mainlining heroin. :shock:

I have had my share of success over the past three years, but I know it's time to cut down. I'm at 12 total teams with 9 FAAB. Seems like a good and easily manageable amount. :? Of course, I went into this year's signup season planning on keeping my registrations down in the single digits. We see how that worked out. 14 Days 'til the NFBC live drafts, but also 14 Days to keep myself from jumping in anymore leagues. :) Seems like an awful long wait for either. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby KJ Duke » Fri Mar 09, 2012 10:19 pm

Glenneration X wrote:Thanks Jason. Yeah, 17 FAAB was a bit much.

It's hard to believe that it was only 2007 when I wasn't even playing fantasy baseball because my first local league had disbanded. In 2008, a colleague at work hooked me up with a spot in his local league for my one and only team that year. At the time, I had never had more than one team in any year. However things changed drastically the next year. 2009 was when I discovered national contests such as the NFBC and CDM and my total number of teams climbed all the way to 6. From there it was off to the races. Even though I gave up my local league in 2010, I added NFBC pre-season drafts and the WCOFB and with the NFBC adding its second weekend of live drafts, before you knew it I was up to 15 total leagues, 13 of them FAAB. Last year I fully intended on paring down and managed to cut my annual CDM team and any slow drafts from my agenda. However, I ended up jumping in a few unaffiliated private leagues and voila, 17 teams, all FAAB. :roll: Addiction's a bitch. I suppose that's a similar track to how someone goes from his first beer to mainlining heroin. :shock:

I have had my share of success over the past three years, but I know it's time to cut down. I'm at 12 total teams with 9 FAAB. Seems like a good and easily manageable amount. :? Of course, I went into this year's signup season planning on keeping my registrations down in the single digits. We see how that worked out. 14 Days 'til the NFBC live drafts, but also 14 Days to keep myself from jumping in anymore leagues. :) Seems like an awful long wait for either. ;)


What could be the harm in two more?
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Mar 10, 2012 7:30 am

I hear ya KJ. I've just come to the personal realization that anyone who can handle an even 12 teams total with 9 of them FAAB falls under the heading of having the uncanny ability to handle multiple teams. :) While adding a couple more and finishing with ummmm, let's just use 14 total teams with 10 of them FAAB as a completely random example :P , would then approach the realm of unhealthy obsession (anyone who might have that many teams shall remain nameless :P ).

All joking aside Bud, considering there's still nearly two weeks 'til the live drafts and my tendency to impulse buy, my chances of finishing at only 12 teams is still a very shaky proposition. 8-)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sun Mar 11, 2012 11:15 am

One last note on putting self-imposed limits on league signups. While sitting in the chat room of the NFBCK Keeper League draft last night, a few of us were having a conversation on the topic, myself, KJ, RT, Todd, with others chiming in on occasion. The jist of the conversation started on how some of us were already at our personal limits for league entries and our reasons for not wanting to add anymore. However, during the course of the night the conversation slowly transformed into some of us giving each other the reasons that "they" should add one or more entries and why. By the end of the night, a couple of us had convinced each other that adding leagues was the way to go and left the room with plans for more teams. :shock: Somewhere along this conversation, Zola who had become momentarily quiet as the dynamic of the conversation slowly changed from one extreme to the other chimed in with "This is like being a recovering alcoholic sitting in a room full of drunks." :D Addiction's a bitch.

The NFBCK Keeper League is the only keeper league associated with the NFBC. It is now entering its 5th season and still has seven of its original members. Everyone currently in the league is a stable owner as not one franchise was turned over to a new owner this season. It's a great league with a great format filled with some of the best players in high stakes. This year's draft was switched to a slow draft format, making the experience even more of a blast, as many of the players that are a part are not only great players but a kick to draft with as well. KJ, Jupinka, RT, Zola, Max, Zaleski, Pausma, Greg Morgan are all guys I've met, or gotten to know, chatted with, corresponded with, drafted against, etc. over the years, are all great guys and this draft is not only challenging because of them but a fun experience as well.

My first season with this league was last season when I took over probably its historically worst franchise as the two previous owners had 2 of the 4 worst average annual finishes in the league's history out of the 23 owners who've been part. :shock: The team I took over was honestly bereft of much talent, had limited potential keepers with any significant value or upside, and had only one minor league keeper worth holding onto long term. However, the rules for this league allow for a relatively quick rebuild as only 8 major league and 5 minor league players can be kept for any team from one season to the next, no player can be kept on any team's active roster for more than 3 seasons before being thrown back into the draft pool, and you can rebuild your minor league system from year to year or hold onto your minor leaguers indefinitely until you feel they are fantasy ready or dependent upon your own current perceived state of the team. Although I tried to compete last season (and failed miserably continuing the 60's Mets type history of this team :? ), my main goal was to try to set up this squad for a better chance at success in future seasons. I believe I made a first step towards that goal and at least in making this team my own as all 8 of my keepers this year were drafted by me last year and only one of my inherited minor leaguers remain.

With the draft starting this weekend, all keeper and minor leaguers had to be finalized last week. I had some easy calls, some tougher calls, but was satisfied with the eventual building blocks I decided to hold onto. Any previously drafted keepers are kept at the corresponding round they were drafted in originally, any free agents kept take the place of your 11th round pick, and any promoted minor leaguers take the place of your 15th round picks.

Below are my keepers in order of ease of decision along with the corresponding round they were kept at. One thing to keep in mind is that once a few rounds into the draft itself, most players end up going several rounds prior to their re-draft ADP due to the much shallower player pool, a result of the lower rounds keepers are applied, but also due to our minor leaguers that would typically cost an early pick that are instead off the market altogether such as Starlin Castro, Jennings, Heyward, Jesus Montero, Matt Moore, Bumgarner, etc. Now onto the Keeper decisions:

20 - Adam Wainwright - Drafted last year for this sole purpose, a no-brainer.

21 - Alex Gordon - The long awaited breakout finally occurred making this choice an easy one.

5 - Curtis Granderson - Regression is certainly possible, even likely, but with only a reduced 5th round cost he can absorb quite a bit.

3 - Cliff Lee - This league determines draft slot by open bidding of FAAB. With Granderson already a decided keeper with a 5th round cost, I decided to bid my way to the back end of the draft increasing not only his value but that of any other early odd-numbered round keeper option I was considering....and I was considering a few, Lee amongst them. With the decision made to head towards the back of the draft, a late 3rd round price for an ace typically costing a 2nd rounder in re-draft leagues became an easy call.

28 - Ryan Doumit - A starting catcher with some skills who'll get DH at-bats at the cost of a late reserve. He's not a difference maker, but the cost is hard to pass up.

15 - Derek Holland - A high upside pitcher on the rise on a great team with K-potential. The Texas heat is always a concern, but at a relatively low cost, a young pitcher with upside in a Keeper format seemed like a decent asset. A ceiling choice.

11 - Dustin Ackley - This was one of my tougher calls. I had two 2B with an 11th round cost in Ackley and Neil Walker. Do I keep one? Do I keep none? Do I keep both? I decided I would keep one and only one of these relatively inexpensive middle infielders. Though I felt Walker could actually provide slightly better production this year, I went with Ackley as I think he's much more capable of providing a much higher return on investment over the two years I can keep him. Ceiling won out here as well.

1 - Hanley Ramirez - This was my toughest decision. At the price of a number 1 and with signs of decline, there was no value in making this decision. With Tulo's 3-year contract up and having to be thrown back in the pool, it made the decision even tougher. However, my thinking was based on several factors. I'd certainly have to spend at least half my FAAB in order to obtain the number one pick with Tulo. Instead, with my decision almost assured to move towards the back of the draft to increase the value of Grandy & Lee, this would also apply for Hanley. Considering, I had to pay a fortune to grab him with the number 2 pick last year, he's only one year removed from being considered the most valuable or 2nd most valuable player in the game. With Reyes a keeper, Tulo likely to cost a fortune, I could assure myself a top-3 SS for the price of a very late first rounder. I struggled with this one, but felt it was my best option.

Other Options - Probably the players I considered the longest before deciding on my Keepers were Neil Walker (11 round) and Carlos Beltran (10). I already went over the reasoning behind the Walker decision. Beltran would have probably provided value at that cost, but his injury risk ultimately disqualified him in my mind. An early cut was Cory Hart (4), who would have likely gotten slightly more consideration if not for the spring surgery.

Minor Leaguers - I kept three of my 5 minor leaguers, Dominic Brown, Devin Mesoraco, & Jonathan Singleton, throwing Brandon Allen & Jose Iglesias back into the draft pool. One of the benefits of moving to the back of the draft is the minor league draft goes in reverse order of our active player draft. I should end up with a premium prospect with my first choice.

In the Draft Slot Auction, I had decided to head as far back as I could in the draft without having to pay significantly in FAAB for it. The vast majority of the league threw back their first rounders, which worked in my favor as anyone without a first rounder typically bid for an earlier spot in the draft. I ended up allowing myself to be outbid for the 15 and 14 slots as they went for well over $300 and $100 respectively. I ended up with draft slot 13 for a buck. I was satisfied there, especially at the cost.

I won't go much into how the draft itself is going. I will say however that I was satisfied to have had a choice between two pretty good keeper options with my first pick at 2.3. My decision was between having King Felix anchor my staff for the next three years....or this guy man the hot corner.....

Image

I'll give you one guess which direction I went. 8-)
Last edited by Glenneration X on Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby KJ Duke » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:46 pm

Nice job on the re-build Glenn. The Wainwright pick last season was genius for your team, and Granderson should be first round value in this format for the next two seasons.

Switching to a slow format this year is something I should've done before now; nothing beats a slow format with a great group of owners! Seventeen rounds to go - my only regret was not adding dough as an observer. I'm sure he'd bounce in and say hello everyday had I done that since it's 125 bucks cheaper than the MLBC room. :mrgreen: Someone remind me to do that next year.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby headhunters » Mon Mar 12, 2012 5:09 pm

glenn- another great wright-up. i will say you are really really a met fan. if i were you i would be worried about wright even playing this year. it looks like nothing has changed with the mets and injuries. wright and davis could be out the whole season. santana looks good though- so there is that.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:26 am

Don't you fret Mike. I'm not only counting on Mr. Wright shaking off his little ribs setback, but going on to a season that will likely approach the yet untouched 50/50 mark this year. :D

By the way, you'll be happy to know that in the NFBCK Keeper League slow draft yesterday, I was able to add Jon Niese to a squad that already had Mr. Wright and Jason Bay rostered. :shock: How my fellow league members allowed me to transform my pitching into the powerhouse my hitting had already become is beyond comprehension. With not one, not two, but three, yes three Mets rostered, there's no stopping this team from becoming the Dynasty of the NFBCK now!!!! :P

The 2012 NFBCK Glenneration X Keeper League team and our beloved New York Mets, working hand in hand towards domination for years to come. :D :D 8-)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby headhunters » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:34 am

wright just said today that all was wrong and he expects to begin season on the dl. as for davis- rest is what is prescribed for valley fever. what are the mets going to do? play him every day in the heat and humidity down in florida " with the hope that we can land him on the dl by april 15th" those met doctors- not to worry.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Outlaw » Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:10 pm

Hey Glen,

I didnt realize you were indeed headed to Vegas. I'm lookign forward to meeting you there, one Long Islander to another,even though I've been in California for a few years, I'm still a long Islander and NY sports fan of my Mets and Yankees, Jets and islanders. The ealry 80's were amazing when i had my season tcikets to the Islanders for all 4 Lord stanley runs and wou can forget the Mets of the late 80's. I'm actually here in Florida now spending 2 days with a friend of mine, Mr.Backman (soon to be mets manager, at least thats the promise and plan, as long as the Wilpons hold onto the team). From here to Vegas for my first mains and as you said meeting some great people inlolved with NFBC.
Looking forward to reading you blog writeups too during the season.
Mike
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:21 pm

Mike, it's good to know I won't be the only Long Islander out in Vegas in a couple weeks. I look forward to meeting you as well.

As far as the teams you rooted for in your youth, nice job with our Mets and Jets. As far as those hated Islanders are concerned, all I can say is "Potvin Sucks!!!!". Here's a little hometown memory I'm sure you'll enjoy........ ;)

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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:33 am

With the picks of Gerrit Cole and Xander Bogaerts filling my open minor league slots, I closed out not only my NFBCK Keeper draft yesterday, but my pre-season draft schedule as well.

A far cry from last year, my prep drafts this season consisted only of NFBC Slow Draft Championship entries (the NFBCK not really fitting the mold of a prep draft due to the 3-year window you have to look at players and the keepers altering a player's draft position). Last year, I stayed away from slow drafts altogether due to what's become known (thanks to Doughy) as the "Marcel" factor. I just don't have the patience to sit around for an entire night waiting to pick while one player holds an entire draft room hostage. So my pre-season drafts a year ago were comprised strictly of high profile yet reasonably priced satellite drafts such as the SCL, the Hot Tub, the WCOFB Invitational, and a Jack Haan league, all filled with some of the best players in these contests and each an outstanding pre-season prep. However, Shawn and Doughy didn't offer the SCL and Hot Tub respectively this season, the WCOFB is obviously no more, and Jack utilizes CBS which I found a bit lacking as a back end. So if I was going to partake in an early prep draft this season, it was going to have to be through the NFBC's slow draft format.

After my one year hiatus from slow drafts, I was originally going to limit my participation this season to Max's 1000 Slow. However, due to my impatience while waiting for Max's Slow to start (scheduled to begin the day pitchers and catchers report) and my tendency to impulse buy, I ended up joining one other slow draft, a 150 offering, and a 150 Fast/Slow as well. Considering the various threads in the General Discussion area making issue of the Marcels of the world, I feel relatively lucky that all of my 3 slows moved at a refreshing pace. The Fast/Slow obviously anything but a slow draft at 30 seconds per pick, the 1000 slow filled with NFBC regulars considerate of each other and completed in I believe only 9 days, and even the standard slow 150 moved along at a nice and brisk pace. I'm satisfied with my slow draft experience this season and believe it prepped me as well for "draft flow" as the high profile satellites did last season, but with the added benefit of not having to worry about FAAB for these leagues in-season. :D

Max's 1000 Slow was obviously the recipient of most of my focus and thoughts for these three drafts and though I won't go into all my picks for this league, I will list my first 6 (since Greg has already set that standard :)) and the thought process behind each. Since this draft took place nearly a month ago and much has changed since, my thoughts on these players may have changed as well, but I will try to provide my thinking at the time. I will follow up with a straight listing of my first 6 picks for the other two slow offerings I was part of, all three teams built differently, with different starts and generally different players throughout.


Max's 1000 Slow - Draft Start Date 2/20 - Draft Slot 1

1.1 - Miguel Cabrera 3B/1B - My first choice for KDS was the 1-slot and the player I was targeting there was Cabrera. The 3B eligibility played a role, but so did the fact that I believed him at the time to be the safest bet to repeat and/or improve on last season of the players at the top of the draft board.

2.15 - Jose Reyes SS - I really gave no thought prior to the draft of getting Reyes here since he hadn't fallen to this spot in any of the 50 or so drafts prior. He comes with some risk, but at this point at the very end of the 2nd round I believed the risk to be marginalized. I also felt what he brings to the table works well with Cabrera as it gave me additional batting average coverage, the SB's that Cabrera wouldn't help in, and filled another scarce position as well.

3.1 - Ryan Braun OF - At the time of this pick, Braun was still under the cloud of potential suspension. However I had decided pre-draft that if still there, I was grabbing Braun at this turn. I felt that anywhere in the 3rd round, the draft position was late enough that it had Braun's suspension downside already built in when combined with the replacement level player I'd draft later. However if not suspended, the upside was enormous. In addition, I had convinced myself by this point that Braun would not be suspended. I felt that if MLB had a lockdown case, the suspension would have been announced much earlier. The fact that the verdict was still up in the air so long after the process had started must have meant that Braun had an argument and if he did, they couldn't or wouldn't suspend him. The longer it lingered, the more certain I became. I was so sure of this by then, I had decided to take Braun as early as 2.1 in the Fast/Slow scheduled to start a few days later. Unfortunately the announcement that he wouldn't be suspended came a day or so before that draft took place. However, I do still have him rostered on 2 of my 3 slows.

4.15 - Yovani Gallardo SP - My offense off to what I felt was a strong enough start, I wanted to turn my attention to pitching in order to maintain some balance across the categories. Gallardo in my opinion was the best available at this point.

5.1 - Jon Lester SP - See above.

6.15 - Michael Young 3B/1B - I struggled a bit over this pick. I though he was decent value at the end of the 6th, but I already had Cabrera for 3B. I thought about filling another need here and grabbing one of the available mid-tier 1B later in the draft. However, I felt Young's potential BA when combined with what I could anticipate from Cabrera, Reyes, and Braun would give me enough coverage to go towards any possibilities on offense that may turn up later in the draft. Having a pair of multi-positional elible players at the corners also gave me options both in-draft and in-season. I pulled the trigger.



150 Fast Slow - Draft Date 2/24 - Draft Slot 15

1.15 - Evan Longoria 3B
2.1 - Hanley Ramirez SS
3.15 - Mike Napoli C
4.1 - Nelson Cruz OF
5.15 - Buster Posey C
6.1 - Stephen Strasburg SP



150 Slow - Draft Start Date 1/31 - Draft Slot 14

1.14 - Curtis Granderson OF
2.2 - Dustin Pedroia 2B
3.14 - Ryan Braun OF
4.2 - CC Sabathia SP
5.14 - Dan Uggla 2B
6.2 - Paul Konerko 1B


Again, I'm generally happy having returned to the Slow draft format this year. I felt it provided necessary prep and more importantly, a great time. I feel ready for the next phase ahead. Now all there's left to do is just wait 'til the live drafts start, only 6 Days to go. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Outlaw » Sat Mar 17, 2012 6:51 am

Glenneration X wrote:Mike, it's good to know I won't be the only Long Islander out in Vegas in a couple weeks. I look forward to meeting you as well.

As far as the teams you rooted for in your youth, nice job with our Mets and Jets. As far as those hated Islanders are concerned, all I can say is "Potvin Sucks!!!!". Here's a little hometown memory I'm sure you'll enjoy........ ;)

Image

Glenn,

My boss used to drag me to the ranger games in the 90's - free tickets what the heck...it was nice to see Leetch an dMessier score that one, after what 40-50 years or soemthing..... since then we both have stunk, but it does look like the Rangers might be the team to beat this year....
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:32 am

Today I fly out to Vegas. It'll be my first trip to Sin City since my son was born a little over 4 years ago and I can't wait. In fact, I had to back out of a business outing to Vegas in 2007 because it fell very close to my wife's due date and I didn't want to risk being away if she went into labor. At the time I was making it out there for either work or play at least once a year, so it didn't seem like that big a deal to pass on one trip. However, if I knew then that it would be this long 'til I'd make it back...... :? :D

This will also be my first trip to Vegas for either an NFBC or NFFC weekend. I look forward to meeting Greg for the first time as well as many the players that I've gotten to "know" over my 3 years with the contest but have yet to meet in person. I've always loved being part of the live events in NYC, AC, Mahwah, but being part of them in Vegas, the center of it all when it comes to high stakes fantasy sports should make it even more of a blast.

I did take part in last week's drafts. I did the MtM in Mahwah but the Main as well as a pair of XII's online. I won't be posting those drafts today as I'll wait until I'm done with all of my drafts before posting some thoughts regarding them from both weekends. I do have a couple of thoughts though on this past week of NFBC festivities leading up to my Vegas trip that I would like to share here.

This is the 3rd season since the NFBC switched to its dual draft weekend schedule. My first season in 2009 was the only one I got to take part in where all the drafts were held simultaneously on one weekend. I understand those who miss the purity of the one weekend, everyone starts the Main at exactly the same time, no ADP or insight from a previous week's Main Event to influence anyone's thought process that all contributed to the dynamics of the original NFBC live draft schedule. However, I welcomed the dual weekends when it was originally offered and am still very happy that this is the new way of doing things. We Countdown the days for 100 Days :P or more in growing excitement and anticipation until our live drafts are here. Then like so many of the great things in life that we look forward to, they're gone too quickly. Anything that extends that fun a little longer works me.

As I stated earlier, I took part in the MtM in person but had to drive home that night to do the Main online due to some other personal commitments. I know there's a thread out there right now where the original poster of that thread foresaw the end of the live drafts one day. I surely hope not. There's no comparison to being there live as opposed to taking part at home on your laptop. The feeling that you're taking part in something special is magnified 100 fold or more when you walk into the live draft room. The excitement and anticipation while greeting or meeting your fellow drafters or readying yourself at your draft table is hard to describe. My personal favorite part of the experience takes part after the drafts while you and all your fantasy sports brethren check out the various draft boards, everyone commenting on this person's draft or that person's, commenting on where this player was drafted or that player, asking for commentary on their own drafts or giving commentary for others who've asked. It's truly a special part of the festivities. I do appreciate that there is an Online option. I wouldn't have been able to take part in this year's first weekend Main Event without it. Still, if there were no Live drafts, I'm not sure I would love this hobby as much as I do and am not sure how long I would be a part.

Lastly, a couple quick thoughts on the MtM. As much as I go back and forth trash talking with Mikey on these boards, it's all in fun and he's truly a great great guy. He also did himself extremely proud with this draft. He promised to make this a special night for all of us and he came through. Besides organizing this entire event and managing to recruit so many of the best fantasy players from this side of the country to take part, he went out of his way to reward any of us who agreed to take part. In fact, he went above and beyond. From the beautiful facilitator (who is probably still wondering how we geeks paid more attention to our cheat sheets than her :? ) to the MtM T-shirts (calling them T-shirts is not doing them justice, they're more like jerseys), to the unbelievable trophy that all of us hope to win, to the after-draft dinner he organized and even set up transportation for, he made sure all of us felt like we were part of something special. We were. I'm very happy that I took part. Thanks Mikey, great great job. However, in the future none of that is necessary. Drafting against this unbelievably talented and challenging group is reward enough. I hope to make it an annual part of my draft season.

Just a few more hours 'til I leave for my flight. Good luck this weekend everyone, whether I'll see you in Vegas or you'll be drafting in NYC, Chicago, or Online. One of the best weekends of the year is here. :)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Roy's Outlaws » Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:39 am

Glenn, Try and stay out of the Poker rooms and get a little sleep before the main. remember it start at 10:00 A.M. no lunch time start like here on the east coast Plus say hello to Linny for me and remind him that this an even year and he can let someone else win. He win on odd years. LOLLOL :lol: :lol: :D . Good luck in most of your league that I'm not in :D
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Outlaw » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:10 am

Safe Trip Glen! I'm on a 6am flight tommorrow with the bride and now she wants to go watch the morning round at the MJ tournament, so I may not get to hotel until afternoon, which will of course leave me scrambling for 4pm draft, but oh well, all in name of peace with the wife.

See you there

mike
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:33 am

Roy's Outlaws wrote:Glenn, Try and stay out of the Poker rooms and get a little sleep before the main. remember it start at 10:00 A.M. no lunch time start like here on the east coast


Too late my friend. I'm just getting back to my room now. It's a good thing sleep is only an absolute necessity for the very young or the very old. Since I fall somewhere in between, I have a few years before I have to worry about it. Besides, I can always take a power nap during the draft breaks if I need it. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Fri Mar 30, 2012 7:29 am

Glenneration X wrote:
Roy's Outlaws wrote:Glenn, Try and stay out of the Poker rooms and get a little sleep before the main. remember it start at 10:00 A.M. no lunch time start like here on the east coast


Too late my friend. I'm just getting back to my room now. It's a good thing sleep is only an absolute necessity for the very young or the very old. Since I fall somewhere in between, I have a few years before I have to worry about it. Besides, I can always take a power nap during the draft breaks if I need it. ;)


Well, maybe playing poker deep into the night wasn't such a great idea. I thought I'd be able to get a couple hours sleep after calling it a night, but I guess poker, just being in Vegas again, and thinking about the live NFBC drafts & auctions scheduled for later today must have gotten me so wired, I haven't been able to sleep a wink yet.

I just gave up trying, spent the last half hour chatting with my kids on OoVoo (videoconferencing software for those who've never heard of it), and am now going to get started on my first full day back in Sin City. I may not have gotten any sleep, but I have a big breakfast headed my way from room service, followed by an appointment for a much needed deep tissue massage at the sauna (might take the hot tub & steam room for a spin as well), and then plans to kick back by the pool for a couple hours before heading off to my first draft today at 1pm Vegas time. Hmmm, maybe I can even fit in a couple more hands of poker before heading over to the Bellagio. :)
Who needs sleep with that much fun on the agenda?

So for everyone else who has drafts and auctions today, good luck to you as well....and I hope you slept better than I did. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Roy's Outlaws » Fri Mar 30, 2012 9:00 am

Glenn,I see a case of Red Bull in your room. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:57 pm

Now that I'm finally back home to the comforts of Long Island, a few quick thoughts of my just completed first NFBC trip to Vegas......

- 6 nights is wayyyyy too long for anyone with limited discipline and a limited bankroll to spend in Sin City. As much fun as I had, it may take me 6 more nights to recover physically and mentally, longer to recover financially, and who knows if I'll ever recover spiritually. :shock: :D

- Sleep is a must for someone of my age. I remember the days when I could go two or three nights in Vegas with no sleep. Well it's been five years since I was last there and I've obviously aged more than I realized in that time. I'm so tired, I could probably sleep until the NFFC drafts.

- I stayed at Caesars Palace. The Bellagio was right across the street with a short walkway connecting the two hotels. It would literally take me only about 5 minutes to get from one hotel to the other. However once in the Bellagio, it would take me two hours by tram to get from the walkway side of the hotel to the ballrooms where the drafts were held. I still can't get over how big these hotels were. Each was a small indoor city with gambling.

- The Bellagio drafts were flawless. I particularly enjoyed the Monet ballrooms with the patios right outside, perfect for those of us who enjoy a smoke break or two while drafting. The food was great as well, a major upgrade from what I remember out East. The facilitators were top notch as always. Brady Tinker is a helluva nice guy, but even more importantly I can't imagine someone running a better auction. Gwen was a sweetheart, very knowledgable, and to her credit a fellow Mets fan (maybe even more so than me if that's possible :) ).

- My laptop battery started dying on me just prior to leaving for Vegas. I couldn't find a local electronics store that carried a spare for my model and I couldn't get one delivered in time from an online vendor. Solution.....Lowe's and a 50 foot extension cord. Best $15 I've spent in a long time, though I was fined by OSHA for creating a draftroom tripping hazard, so it ended up being a little more expensive...though still worth it.

- The awards prior to the Main Event were one of my favorite moments of the week. Seeing those that have achieved so much in our contest acknowledged in such a great way was a reminder of how personal the live events can be and how they are so much greater than any Online only event. It was also great to see Greg acknowledged with his award by his long time customers and friends. It was a touching moment with the classic line "Boy, Tom is going to be pissed!!" :D It was also great to see some of our former champions acknowledged. Though I've known Jupinka for a couple years now, I got to meet Lindy, Bobby Jurney, and David DiDonato each for the first time. What stuck me most about our former champions is how quiet and unassuming each seems to be. You'd never know they were all champions of our contest if they weren't always introduced that way. If I'm ever lucky enough to win this thing, you can count on that changing immediately. :) All kidding aside, they each seemed like really great guys as well as great players.

- The Main Event was a blast as always. I was lucky enough to sit on a side with Wayne Edwards, Gaetan Lavoie, and John Menna. Though they made a habit of never letting a good player fall to me from either side :? , they were all fun and funny players to draft with and made the experience a very enjoyable one.

- I had the pleasure of meeting Wayne Edwards just prior to the Main. What a sweetheart of a guy. Knowing that I was a Tom Seaver fan (I wonder how he even knew :)), Wayne came to the draft with a 1974 Tom Seaver card from his personal collection as a gift for me. It was such a nice gesture and he's such a nice guy. If I don't win our league, there's no doubt I'll be rooting for Wayne all the way.

- Derek Van Riper of Rotowire was in our Main. I think the thing that struck me the most about him was how young he looks. I'm a fan of Rotowire, but I may have to rethink things. I can't be taking fantasy advise from someone who looks young enough to be my son....errrr.....let's say little brother. :)

- RT was also in this draft. In fact, we were in three together over the weekend. I can think of a lot of people I'd rather be in that many drafts against than RT. The effects of Vegas must have already been taking hold on me as I was stupid enough to make a side bet with him based on the results of those three drafts. What the hell was I thinking??? :shock: I've spoken to RT before, but this was the first time I got to meet him in person. He's as great a guy as I expected and I guess if I've got to lose a side bet to someone, he's as good a person to donate to as anyone.

- Chad Schroeder was another player in this Main. Another great guy, very reserved, very humble and unassuming. For someone who's won as much as he has in as many contests, sports, and formats as there are out there, he makes those he's speaking to feel like the experts and he's the one learning from the conversation. However, he's another that I was in one too many drafts with. My chances of cashing this year may be slim and none.

- The NCAA Viewing Party was a fun downtime between the drafts. The food was great, the screen enormous, the people and conversation enjoyable. The only rotten thing about the whole event was Ohio State blowing their double digit lead and having me donate to the Caesars sportsbook on top of my league draftmates. This was also the first time while in Vegas I got to chat for more than a few seconds with Greg. A really great guy, but he never stopped moving the entire weekend. I found out from him during this party that he and his brother in law Dennis were the only two people onsite from STATS setting up all these drafts. No wonder he was always on the go, but the results were evident in the experience. A great job by both of them. One more thing on Greg, he looks much bigger in his pictures than in person (sorry, an inside joke based on the first thing he said to me when meeting me for the first time this weekend :? :)).

- It was also nice having a TV in the draftroom while taking part in my Saturday afternoon NFBC XII. Make a pick, get up and watch the Louisville-Kentucky matchup, make another pick, get up again and watch the game, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat. I apologize once again to my leaguemates for interrupting the draft a few times with the occasional expletive during Louisville turnovers or missed layups. :?

- Anyone who's taken part knows the intensity in an NFBC auction exceeds that of any draft. Multiply that by 1000 and you have the intensity of the AL or Ultimate Auctions, both contests that I took part in for the first times. All I can say about the AL Auction, my first attempt ever at an Only league, is that you know you're in a serious league when you're forced into endgame bidding wars for the likes of Alejandro DeAza and Brandon Allen....and don't even win both of them!!! Alejandro DeAza and Brandon Allen??? I still have nightmares about the experience. The auctions were where I met Jon Stadmueller and Josh Honeycutt, two extremely nice guys, extremely funny, but more importantly deadly auction players. I also met Wil Tyrer at the auctions and learned quite a bit by just sitting next to him. A great player, an even nicer person.

- Shawn Childs and KJ Duke are like the mayors of the Vegas drafts. They know everyone and everyone knows them. This was the first time I've met either in person and they were as great a pair of guys as I expected from past conversations, E-mails, chats or drafts with them. One of my favorite memories of the entire weekend, if not my favorite, took place following the Ultimate Auction, when Shawn and KJ went about analyzing each of the just completed auction teams with a few of us who had taken part still there. Shawn calculating each team's final points and where they will finish in the standings, KJ keeping score, both debating when disagreeing on where a team should be slotted (especially in regards to KJ's team). :) Of course, when Shawn was ready to analyze my team, he asked me to leave the room so he wouldn't have to kill it in front of me. :shock: At least he gave me a couple extra points for potential team management. :? Still it was one of the most hysterical times of the weekend. By the way Shawn, your Homer Bailey +/- bet on saves is looking a little less promising today. ;)

- There are many, many other great players and great guys I met for the first time this weekend, Kevin Kirves, Dave Potts, Dan Semsel, Chris Schinker, Joe Berg, Dave Hubbard, Bob Mazur, Ken Norred, Greg Churchill, and on and on and on, some for a few seconds, some for longer, but all left a lasting impression. I apologize if I left anyone out, but there were so many great people I was lucky enough to finally meet, it is what I will most take from this Vegas experience. One thing for certain that I noticed about all the great people I met in Vegas that almost all seemed to share.....they are all so nice!! The NYC edge, and sometimes ego, that you find so often in our East Coast drafts were nowhere to be found out west. It's a good thing some of my fellow east coast drafters were there like Bob Particelli, Steve Jupinka, Ken Magner, Ken O'Brien and others to remind me of home and keep me grounded from all the unfamiliar niceness I was surrounded by. :) :P All joking aside, it's always great to see and draft with my east coast neighbors.

My first NFBC Vegas draft experience was a great one. It's also one I plan on taking part in again. Over the next day or so, I'll post the results of the big drafts & auctions I finished out in Vegas and the week prior in Mahwah and Online. My Vegas experience over, it's now all about the teams I'm stuck with while drafting out there. :o :D
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Edwards Kings » Fri Apr 06, 2012 5:05 am

Great meeting you too, Glenn. It is gonna be one helluva year!
Disillusionment is what little heroes are made of. E. K. Hornbeck - Inherit the Wind (1960)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:00 pm

The MLB regular season is underway and for many the draft season is now a fading memory. The time to post our drafts has come and gone with my missing that brief window due to my extended stay in Sin City. Ummm, worth it. :D Still, I've posted my drafts every year since I've been with the NFBC and this season I'll do the same. I find it enjoyable reliving the thought process I've gone through while drafting my teams and find it a learning experience when looking back at that thought process at season's end. I drafted 11 teams since the start of the live draft season, a pair of Main Events, two premium drafts, a pair of auctions, and five 12-teamers.

I'll start the review of my live draft season by looking at my 12-teamers. I had some success in the 12-team format last year with a team that finished 5th overall in the Live DP, last season's live 12-team contest. I prefer the live contests for the 12-team format as neither the price point nor the vast number of participants for the Online Championships meets what I'm looking for in an overall contest. I did take part in one Online Championship draft for the first time in two years, but mostly stuck to the NFBC XII by taking four entries in that contest as the potential ROI seemed too good to pass on taking advantage of.

My strategy going into the 12-team drafts was similar to that which proved successful for me last season. I wanted to focus early on scarce positions, even more so than I would for a 15-teamer. I would try to load up on high average power. I would stay away from Judy's and only draft speed in players that combined that speed with at least some power. I wouldn't mind feeling slightly short on speed leaving the drafts, but wanted to assure that I wasn't short in power or average. Though I wouldn't necessarily pass on taking a stud OF early, my preference would be to wait there. I often push closers back, but would push the envelope even further for the 12-teamers. I wanted at least a pair of stud aces with serious K potential. I wanted to fill the balance of my staff with high upside options with potentially high K-rates. My KDS for all five drafts was 1-15 and my draft slot for all five fell between picks 3 and 6. For each I hoped Tulo dropped to me as I felt he was the perfect player to start with to help meet my overall strategy.

The following are the rosters for the five teams with the associated draft choices in parentheses. I won't provide a pick by pick analysis for these teams, but a short general overall summary for each.


NFBC XII - 3/24 Vegas/Online - Draft Slot 5

C - Brian McCann (7)
C - JP Arencibia (17)
1B - Paul Goldschmidt (12)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (4)
CI - David Wright (5)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (2)
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera (6)
MI - Neil Walker (14)
OF - Ryan Braun (1)
OF - Andre Ethier (8)
OF - Peter Bourjos (13)
OF - Yoenis Cespedes (15)
OF - Jason Bay (20)
UT - Allen Craig (22)

P - Roy Halladay (3)
P - Yu Darvish (9)
P - Brandon Beachy (10)
P - Matt Garza (11)
P - Wandy Rodriguez (20)
P - Ryan Dempster (23)
P - Erik Bedard (24)
RP - Frank Francisco (16)
RP - Jim Johnson (18)

Reserves - Bartolo Colon, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams, Chris Davis, Rafael Furcal, Andres Torres, Nyger Morgan

Summary - I feel I obtained the power I was looking for, however may be chasing some speed in season. I took on some BA risk, but feel there was enough coverage established early to balance it. Though I waited a little longer than planned to grab my 2nd starter, I was happy to find Darvish, Beachy, & Garza still available when I was ready to start filling my staff.


NFBC XII - 3/27 Online - Draft Slot 4

C - Miguel Montero (6)
C - Geovany Soto (18)
1B - Michael Cuddyer (9)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (4)
CI - Ike Davis (13)
2B - Aaron Hill (16)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (1)
MI - Chase Utley (21)
OF - Curtis Granderson (2)
OF - BJ Upton (5)
OF - Desmond Jennings (7)
OF - Corey Hart (10)
OF - Jason Bay (20)
UT - Chase Headley (22)

P - Cliff Lee (3)
P - Yu Darvish (8)
P - Corey Luebke (11)
P - Tommy Hanson (12)
P - Shaun Marcum (19)
P - Erik Bedard (23)
P - Gavin Floyd (24)
RP - Kyle Farnsworth (14)
RP - Sean Marshall (15)

Reserves - Matt Thornton, Luke Hochevar, Mike Leake, Scott Baker, Chris Davis, Rafael Furcal, Dayan Viciedo

Summary - Though I like this team to be competive in league, I went way too power/speed OF crazy early and took on much too much BA risk. I also believe I may be light in K's. Because of those two issues that will be difficult to correct in season, this team may have issues competing in the overall. I do like it though, and if I can get just a slight uptick in BA from Grandy, Upton, Hill, etc., ya never know. :)


NFBC XII - 3/30 Vegas - Draft Slot 5

C - Alex Avila (8)
C - Geovany Soto (17)
1B - Paul Goldschmidt (11)
3B - Edwin Encarnacion (14)
CI - Ike Davis (13)
2B - Ian Kinsler (2)
SS - Starlin Castro (4)
MI - Chase Utley (21)
OF - Ryan Braun (1)
OF - Nelson Cruz (5)
OF - Desmond Jennings (6)
OF - Corey Hart (10)
OF - Yoenis Cespedes (15)
UT - Alejandro DeAza (20)

P - Roy Halladay (3)
P - James Shields (7)
P - Yu Darvish (9)
P - Anibal Sanchez (16)
P - Brandon McCarthy (19)
P - Chad Billingsley (22)
P - Erik Bedard (23)
RP - Sergio Santos (12)
RP - Jim Johnson (18)

Reserves - Jonathon Niese, Luke Hochevar, Henry Rodriguez, Chris Davis, Gordon Beckham, Andres Torres, Carlos Quentin

Summary - Obviously I didn't learn my lesson as I took on even more BA risk in this draft than the last. I feel I may have some more coverage though and I loved the Halladay/Shields/Darvish start and price points on the pitching side.


NFBC XII - 3/31 Vegas - Draft Slot 6

C - Brian McCann (6)
C - JP Arencibia (20)
1B - Paul Goldschmidt (11)
3B - David Wright (4)
CI - Carlos Lee (17)
2B - Rickie Weeks (8)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (1)
MI - Emilio Bonifacio (12)
OF - Curtis Granderson (2)
OF - Andre Ethier (9)
OF - Corey Hart (10)
OF - Alex Rios (15)
OF - Jason Bay (21)
UT - Denard Span (23)

P - Zack Grienke (3)
P - CC Sabathia (5)
P - Josh Johnson (7)
P - Jaime Garcia (13)
P - Johan Santana (18)
P - Michael Pineda (22)
P - Mike Leake (24)
RP - Rafael Betancourt (14)
RP - Chris Perez (16)

Reserves - Jonathan Broxton, James McDonald, Homer Bailey, Danny Duffy, Chase Headley, Tyler Greene, Andres Torres

Summary - This may have been the toughest XII on paper as its owners list included last season's Main Event Champion AND runner up AND last season's Live 12-Team Champion in Lindy, KJ, and the tag team of Pat & Emmett respectively. It showed. This is the least favorite of my 12-team efforts.


Online Championship - 4/3 - Draft Slot 3

C - Matt Wieters (5)
C - Russell Martin (18)
1B - Paul Konerko (7)
3B - Chase Headley (20)
CI - Adam Lind (13)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (2)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (1)
MI - Jemile Weeks (12)
OF - Nelson Cruz (6)
OF - Andre Ethier (9)
OF - Corey Hart (10)
OF - Peter Bourjos (16)
OF - Alex Presley (21)
UT - Billy Butler (11)

P - Cliff Lee (3)
P - Zack Grienke (4)
P - Josh Johnson (8)
P - Josh Beckett (15)
P - Francisco Liriano (18)
P - Erik Bedard (23)
P - Bud Norris (24)
RP - Grant Balfour (14)
RP - Kyle Farnsworth (17)

Reserves - Henry Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd, Scott Baker, Chris Davis, Tyler Greene, John Mayberry, Andres Torres

Summary - Astonishingly, there was a drafter who utilized the all-reliever strategy in this draft. Obviously that created an issue for those of us who like to wait on RP as there was no healthy relievers left at the end game. Hopefully the rest of this team is strong enough to compensate while I chase saves in FAAB from day one for this squad. This was not only my final 12-team draft, but my final draft of 2012. I already miss it.
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