Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:54 am

We'll next take a look at my Auction drafts. Over the past two seasons, I've been part of one NFBC Auction Championship league per year. Though I had moments of competitiveness, I failed to cash with either team. So what to do? Like any fantasy player with limited resources who needs to cash while taking part in this high stakes hobby, the only reasonable course of action would be to drop out of the Auction Championships. So I did. :? And then upgraded to both the Ultimate and AL Auctions! :shock: :D Addiction's a bitch. Still, the live draft season wouldn't be the same without feeding my Auction vein. Live auctions are by far the most intense draft format available for fantasy. The ability to bid on any and/or all players, trying to decide if a player is worth that extra dollar, trying to manage your remaining budget, building your teams any way you want, getting into bidding wars, deciding whether to go all in on a player leaving you with only a dollar per for your remaining roster, going once, going twice.....there's so much involved in an auction that increases both the excitement....and the fun. The stakes and formats for the Ultimate and AL Auctions just increased that intensity ten-fold making these drafts the most exciting I took part in this season by far, for me even surpassing that of the Diamond.

I went into both these Auctions with a Stars and Scrubs strategy, though with slight differences on which stars to spend on dependent upon the format. I feel one of my strengths is finding productive players on the cheap during the end game and in FAAB, so I felt that sort of strategy would work towards those strengths. I wanted to focus most of my resources on hitting and went in with a flexible 190/70 planned split with a willingness to adjust on the fly if necessary. I wanted at least one pitching ace and would only grab relievers on the extreme cheap. Outside of that, I planned on letting these Auctions come to me while making final decisions on what I'd pay for specific players or positions dependent upon the draft flow of the auctions at any specific time.


AL Auction - 3/30 Vegas

C - Alex Avila (19)
C - Josh Donaldson (3)
1B - Miguel Cabrera (41)
3B - Brett Lawrie (31)
CI - Brandon Allen (9)
2B - Ian Kinsler (34)
SS - Yunel Escobar (13)
MI - Trevor Plouffe (3)
OF - Yoenis Cespedes (14)
OF - Nolan Reimold (6)
OF - Grady Sizemore (1)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez (1)
OF - Shelley Duncan (1)
UT - Jesus Montero (12)

P - David Price (26)
P - Neftali Feliz (12)
P - Clay Buchholz (10)
P - Luke Hochevar (10)
P - Danny Duffy (5)
P - Dustin McGowan (1)
P - Brett Anderson (1)
P - Glen Perkins (4)
P - Alfredo Aceves (2)

Reserves - Joel Peralta, Fausto Carmona, Brandon Inge, Don Kelly, Ben Francisco, Jack Cust

Summary - Having never taken part in an AL Only Auction previously, or any Only draft or auction for that matter, a big part of my preparation for this draft included studying the results of the previously completed LABR and Tout AL Auctions. The start of our auction however threw me off balance as the prices for the initial stars that were thrown out were significantly higher than those previous expert drafts. I watched in amazement as bidding wars between Childs and Stadmueller in particular, but also Nicola, Wendell, Churchill, etc., sent those early prices far higher than I expected. Watching the stars fly off the board and knowing the inventory in an Only league would be depleted quickly, I got my bearings, adjusted, and made my move to grab a few of the remaining studs I had my eye on, even if I had to overpay what I initially budgeted. I ended up grabbing Miggy, Avila, Lawrie, Kinsler, and Price, managing to fill most of the positions I intended on buying a top option in. I feel I overpaid for Miggy and Lawrie (paid $1 and $2 more than Pujols and Beltre went for respectively), but got the other mentioned buys at what I felt was fair market cost (Kinsler went for the same cost as Pedroia, Price for just less than Haren & Weaver, and Avila for a couple dollars less than Mauer). Though I have several holes in my lineup as a few of the $1 players I bought are currently injured, each should have a full time job when they return which will be a benefit. I felt a lot worse about the holes before examining everyone else's starting roster discovering that every team has their share and will be taking a zero here or there. Because of the increased price of the stars I bought, I decided during the draft to boot closers and utilize that money elsewhere. I still wanted to grab a couple closer-in-waiting types both for the opportunity to salvage the position, but also to have decent ratio options to plug in my lineups if necessary. As luck would have it, two of them were.....Alfredo Aceves and Joel Peralta. :D I guess I may not have completely booted closers after all. One last thought on this draft.....I thought I had money at the end to scoop up some players on the cheap. That was until I got into vicious bidding wars for Alejandro DeAza and Brandon Allen! Yes, Alejandro DeAza and Brandon Allen. :? You know you're in a brand new world while that's happening.


Ultimate Auction - 4/1 Vegas

C - Yadier Molina (7)
C - Geovany Soto (7)
1B - Prince Fielder (37)
3B - David Wright (21) - I owe KJ one for this buy.
CI - Mike Carp (1)
2B - Ryan Raburn (6)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (42)
MI - Stephen Drew (1)
OF - Curtis Granderson (30)
OF - Corey Hart (14)
OF - Logan Morrison (7)
OF - Lorenzo Cain (7)
OF - Colby Rasmus (5)
UT - Denard Span (1)

P - Jon Lester (17)
P - Josh Johnson (15)
P - Jaime Garcia (10)
P - Wandy Rodriguez (5)
P - Neftali Feliz (4)
P - Bud Norris (3)
P - Erik Bedard (1)
RP - Carlos Marmol (9)
RP - Jim Johnson (6)

Reserves - Henry Rodriguez, James McDonald, Josh Collmenter, Rafael Furcal, Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Alvarez, Nyger Morgan

Summary - This draft had a similar dynamic as the AL Auction as the pricing for the initial stars that were thrown out was much higher than I anticipated. Pujols went for $50 and 12 of the first 23 players nominated went $40+. I sat back for awhile once again, but then jumped in when the inventory on the positions that I felt was critical to what I wanted to do started getting light. I wanted Hanley or Tulo and got one, though I ended up paying $2 more for Hanly than Tulo went for previously. I wanted a top option at 1B and got the first one that didn't cost $40. I wanted a top power/speed option in the OF and again got the first that didn't cost $39+. Most importantly, I got my boy David Wright for what I felt was a very reasonable price when KJ dropped out of the bidding....even though we shared a laugh at the break on how he knew he could push me up further due to the "Mets" factor. :D Of course, that thinking ended up backfiring on him when he ended up with Andres Torres later in the draft because I wouldn't go the extra dollar. ;) I have two potential aces in Lester and Johnson that I didn't have to pay ace prices for due to their issues last year. I also have a pair of closers with the job for close to the prices any one of the top closers had gone for alone earlier in the draft. There are a lot of question marks on this team however. How they perform will determine how I finish here. In Shawn's post-auction analysis that several of us stuck around for, he had to charitably give me some potential "in-season management" points in order to keep my team from competing for last place in his predictions. :o We'll see. There's a lot of season to be played out. Either way, these auctions were a blast and I'm glad I added both the AL and Ultimate Auctions to my live draft experience.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:06 pm

Alright, my wife just left with my son for one of his preschool friend's birthday party and the girls are down for their afternoon nap. I have a couple hours before my wife returns and we're off to a holiday dinner at my parents' house. Tomorrow we have an Easter Egg hunt at my brother's in the morning, then another holiday dinner at my in-laws' in the afternoon. With our first FAAB Sunday tomorrow night, I'd better get these draft reviews done now if I'm ever going to get them done. So onto my last four.

Over the past two live draft weekends, I took part in two Main Events, the MtM Super, and the Diamond. These were my four most important 15-team straight drafts this season. For each of these, I'll provide a pick by pick analysis of my thoughts "during" these drafts as I remember them. I'll go in order of when they took place.


MtM Super - 3/23 Mahwah - Draft Slot 2

This Super was the one put together by Mike Massotto that brought together 15 players, all from the east coast, all drafting live in person, some of the players amongst the most renowned in our contest. KDS was handled live as names were pulled out a hat onsite and the choices of draft slot were picked right there moments before the actual draft was ready to start. When my name was pulled, I chose slot 2 as I was hoping to grab either Pujols or Miggy and solidy one of my corner spots with my first pick. Now onto the draft.

1.2 - Albert Pujols - 1B - Though I would have been happy with either Pujols or Miggy here, Pujols had grown into a clear preference for me as the live drafts approached. The expectation for more steals and power from Albert, as well as Miggy's eye injury were all too much for Miggy's anticipated positional flexibility alone to overcome.

2.14 - Cliff Lee - SP1 - If I was reluctant to choose a pitcher in the back of the 2nd round, I would be wary of KDS-ing the early portion of the draft as I believe there is a clear tier drop in offensive players in the middle of the 2nd. I have no such reluctance and am happy to grab a clear and safe ace here.

3.2 - Josh Hamilton - OF1 - Hamilton was not in my original draft plans as I was originally thinking about grabbing a 3B here, but I was a little surprised to still see him available here. I understand Hamilton's injury concerns. However, there may only be a handful of players that provide more fantasy production per AB than Josh. In the 3rd round, I believe his injury downside is already priced in and gladly grab a potential 1st round talent here.

4.14 - Brandon Phillips - 2B - Zobrist went a couple picks earlier. I know many feel 2B to be a relatively deep position in talent this year. However, once you get past the Phillips, Zobrist, Kendrick tier, things get much dicier in the production you can count on. Phillips may not be a sexy pick, but he'll provide a nice power/speed combination without hurting my BA.

5.2 - Aramis Ramirez - 3B - There isn't a position this year with as steep a tier drop as 3B once you get past the first 10 or 11 players. Most are already gone. I grab Aramis over Youkilis as they were the only two remaining.

6-14 - Joe Mauer - C1 - Another scarce position growing scarcer as the draft continues along. I take Mauer over Avila as my choice of the last two remaining of that early tier. Mauer should give me some BA coverage for some BA risks I have my eye on later down the line.

7-2 - Carl Crawford - OF2 - I need speed. At the time, Crawford's injury timeline was not as severe as it is now. I just couldn't pass on Crawford here with him only expected to miss the first week or two at the time. I had to push my 2nd starter another round, which gave me a level of discomfort. However, this was a go for the home run pick that I thought I had to make at the time.

8-14 - Daniel Hudson - SP2 - Many of the pitchers I was hoping would drop here when I made my Crawford pick were scooped up in the nearly two rounds since. Though I like Hudson, he's definitely a consolation prize in my mind due to the lack of a strong K-rate in comparison to the pitchers who went before him.

9-2 - John Axford - RP1 - Though I planned on pushing closers, I wanted at least one decent bet at the position. I anticipated a closer run starting shortly and grabbed a top option available late trying to beat the run. 13 closers went before my next pick, so I was happy with this call.

10-14 - Paul Goldschmidt - CI - I'm really high on Goldschmidt's prospects this season and have managed to roster him on several teams. I think the power is very real and the home park should only help. He can throw in some steals as well. If he can keep his contact rate and BA above water, I'll have a big edge at the CI spot.

11-2 - Jeremy Hellickson - SP3 - I regretted this pick almost immediately after making it. I wanted to go starter here, but several of my first choices went since the last turn. The last pitching option I had hoped for here, Anibal Sanchez went just prior to this pick in the two picks at the turn after I chose Goldschmidt. Scrambling, I chose Hellickson over a pitcher I liked better in Jaime Garcia. Hopefully Hellickson's ridiculously reduced K-rate last year was an anomoly and he returns to the strong rates he showed consistently in the minors.

12-14 - Neftali Feliz - SP4 - I was very high on Feliz going into the early draft season this year. If there's a team that's proven that they can turn a reliever into a top starting option, it's Texas. CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando...neither has close to the skills of Feliz. If they can transform these lesser talents, what can we expect them to do with a top talent like Feliz. The injury marred preseason is certainly a concern, but may prove to be a benefit as it may have helped depress his price.

13-2 - Yoenis Cespedes - OF3 - The ultimate risk reward pick. This player is an absolute physical beast. The only question, contact rate. I'm betting on the power speed combination coming through as I've rostered him on several teams.

14-14 - Frank Francisco - RP2 - The perfect reliever for me. He has the job. He has the skills. Other drafters are down on him. Noone trusts him. Just the kind of reliever whose price is depressed enough to make him a consistent late target for me. Plus, he's a Met. :D

15-2 - Alejandro DeAza - OF4 - Decent speed, some power, shouldn't hurt your BA, leading off for a decent offense in a decent park.

16-14 - Wandy Rodriguez - SP5 - He was being drafted in the 3rd round two years ago, 10th round last year, 16th round this year? The skills are still there. I'm betting on some regression here.

17-2 - Geovany Soto - C2 - He may never be the player many once thought he was capable of becoming. Constantly injured and inconsistent, but he does have power and he has done it before. At worst, he should contribute mid-teens HR's.

18-14 - Erik Bedard - SP6 - I have Bedard everywhere. He's healthy today and as long as he's healthy, he's a solid pitcher with filthy stuff. I'm not dreaming that there's any chance he gives me 35 starts, but whatever starts he does give should be quality ones. When he gets hurt, I'll find someone else, but the quality starts already given will be in the bank.

19-2 - Zack Cozart - SS - Once you get past the top few options at SS, you might as well wait. I like Cozart late as a potential power speed option with limited cost.

20-14 - Mike Leake - SP7 - Skills, upside, low cost.

21-2 - James McDonald - SP8 - See Mike Leake.

22-14 - Chris Davis - UT - One of these days, the power production shown in the minors and that first half season in Texas will surface again. It has to right? Well, he'll get his opportunity in Baltimore. Right team, right park....right time?

23-2 - Andres Torres - OF5 - Torres has found himself on many of my teams as a late speed option. Hopefully, the calf injury isn't too serious and he makes it back quickly...and still runs, since that's all he can do well. :)

24-14 - Stephen Drew
25-2 - Sergio Romo
26-14 - Josh Collmenter
27-2 - Mike Adams
28-14 - Tyler Pastornicky
29-2 - Aroldis Chapman
30-14 - Nate Schierholtz
Last edited by Glenneration X on Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby KJ Duke » Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:45 pm

Lowy ! :mrgreen:

Nice meeting you in person as well Glenn. As involved as you are, you need to join the regular crowd in Vegas - the party gets bigger and better every year. 8-) Too bad we couldn't squeeze in a poker game, next year let's can get it on the schedule early.
User avatar
KJ Duke
 
Posts: 6343
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:09 pm

First Weekend Main Event - Online 3/24 - Draft Slot 14

This was the first Main Event I've ever taken part in Online, and hopefully my last. Not that I don't appreciate having the Online option as I couldn't have taken part first weekend without it. Still, it felt like just another draft when compared to being there live and in person. I set my KDS for this draft 1-15 as I liked the choices towards the front of the draft this year better than the rear and liked having the advantage of choosing earlier in every odd round. However as the luck of the KDS Gods would have it, I ended up with slot 14. I was hopeful Hanley Ramirez would drop there, but was not confident as his hot spring was forcing his ADP earlier as the draft season wore on. If Hanley wasn't there, I decided I would take the best available player in that spot and build from there.

1-14 - Justin Upton - OF1 - I typically prefer to draft an infielder in the first round, but was happily surprised to see Upton fall to me. He's one of a handful of players with the right skills and the right career arc to possibly end up with a season that would vault him to the very top of the draft next year.

2-2 - Evan Longoria - 3B - The player at the turn went 2B/2B leaving Longoria for me here in the 2nd. With some positive BA regression, Longoria could be a steal here considering his enormous power as well as the potential for some speed from a scarce position.

3-14 - CC Sabathia - SP1 - With two very strong offensive pieces in place, I grabbed a pitcher to slot into my ace role. Grienke went one pick earlier and I would have preferred him here. However, I feel CC is constantly underrated due to his size. Year after year, everyone waits for his weight to catch up to him. Year after year, he produces great numbers.

4-2 - Elvis Andrus - SS - With Tulo and Hanley obviously off the board and two potentially huge power hitters already rostered, I wanted elite speed at the SS position and from this draft slot. I considered passing on Andrus and grabbing Napoli who was still available. However, I felt there would be solid catching options at the next turn, while I wasn't sure if my fallback option for a speed SS in Dee Gordon would make it back. I decided I wanted the surer bet at SS anyway since I had the opportunity to lock it up.

5-14 - Buster Posey - C1 - Is he all the way back? If he is even close, he jumps back up to being just shy of the very top of the catching options.

6-2 - Jon Lester - SP2 - I want a second stud starter in a Main Event. Lester qualifies. Just a year ago, he was one of the first 5 or 6 pitchers taken off the board. A rough September, another Boston historical collapse, and some beer and chicken and the world is down on this talent. I'm betting that he dedicates himself to return to elite status. I did think about Josh Johnson and Matt Moore here, but went with what I felt was a surer option.

7-14 - Matt Garza - SP3 - I typically don't go for a 3rd SP this early, but a ton of starters flew off the boards since my last turn. Kennedy, Johnson, Latos, Shields, Moore, Hudson, Luebke, Gio, Beachy, Hanson, Darvish, & Romero were all taken since I grabbed Lester. I was happy to see Garza here as I believe he took a true next step last season and is a decent bet to repeat. I now have three starters on board, all capable of 200 K's. I'm feeling strong and balanced on offense and pitching at this point.

8-2 - Corey Hart - OF2 - With Andrus, Posey, and three SP's taken over my last 5 picks, I felt the need to get some more power. Hart has legitimate 30 HR power, may throw in a few steals if the legs hold up, and shouldn't hurt the BA. I'm high on him this year and have rostered him on several teams. A run of potential power hitting OF's followed in this round as Heyward, Cuddyer, Ethier, Werth, etc. were all grabbed before the draft made it back to me further legitimizing this pick.

9-14 - Heath Bell - RP1 - A run of closers had just started. I grabbed one of the top options on my board that was still available.

10-2 - Paul Goldschmidt - 1B - More power. Again as alluded in the MtM draft post, I believe Goldschmidt to be one of the better potential power buys at his price point this year.

11-14 - Derek Jeter - MI - I know, boring. Fading. Old. Still, with that offense and where he bats in it, he should produce a nice bevy of runs. Throw in steals in the teens and the .300 +/- BA he seems to deliver every year and he's not a bad option for MI or at this price.

12-2 - Jason Kipnis - 2B - Neil Walker, Aaron Hill, & Kelly Johnson went with three of the four picks before my Jeter selection. I decided to close out my MI slots here before they further dried up with an upside power/speed option that showed some real skills in his debut last season before getting hurt. The boringly consistent Jeter matched up with the risk/reward Kipnis. At worst, it should be interesting to see what they give me from this turn.

13-14 - Frank Francisco - RP2 - Once again, Francisco is available at the later portions of the RP rounds as noone trusts him despite having both the role and the skills. I'll just keep waiting 'til the other options are scooped up and grab him over and over again throughout the draft season.

14-2 - Carlos Lee - CI - Solid if boring option at CI. Also comes with some position flexibility. I believe he drops further in drafts than his anticipated production should warrant because there's not much upside here. Yet the year end stats should be more than worth this pick.

15-14 - Matt Capps - RP3 - Bad pick. I should have went for more offense here. Especially since the inventory of available OF's were starting to really fly off the boards and I still needed three. I just couldn't pass on a closer with the job this late.

16-2 - Alejandro DeAza - OF3 - I'm hopeful that he contributes good speed, a solid BA, a handful of HR's and counting stats from the top of the Chisox order.

17-14 - Neftali Feliz - SP4 - I went back to the SP well for a pitcher that as I've stated in the MtM draft post, I'm high on this year. CJ, Alexi, Neftali....let's hope this conversion works as well as the others.

18-2 - Chad Billingsley - SP5 - I pushed OF back one more round as I just couldn't pass on Bills here. There was a time that he was being considered the Drysdale to Kershaw's Koufax. I'd settle for a productive Claude Osteen. Bills has the skills, if he could just learn to throw it over the plate a bit more.

19-14 - Allen Craig - OF4 - I waited too long on OF. Those with fulltime jobs are pretty much all gone right now. I go for an injured player without a guaranteed role when he returns to fill one of my remaining OF slots. Probably a bad move. However, one thing. This boy can flat out hit. Power and average. He is nearly ready and I believe when he is, the Cards will have no choice but to make room for his bat. We'll see. I do need this pick to work out somehow.

20-2 - Chase Utley - UT - Another risk/reward pick. I just can't watch him slip anymore. Even if he comes back in a month, two months and just provides the production he did last season, he's worth far greater than this pick. I'll use him as a very productive UT if that scenerio plays out. If he doesn't come back, all I've wasted is a 20th rounder. More than worth the risk.

21-14 - Chris Ianetta - C - He has the job. Part of a great offense. Still has immense power. Maybe a change of scenery is what's needed for the long awaited breakout.

22-2 - Scott Baker - SP6 - What was I thinking?? Will I never learn my lesson in regards to this guy? Hopefully he'll be back in a month and gives me some production before he gets hurt AGAIN! :(

23-14 - Carlos Quentin - OF5 - I think I will be very happy with this pick by year's end. Yes, he'll be out for a couple more weeks. However, he is a legitimate power hitter, even in that park. Hopefully he can speed up his recovery, because I need some healthy bodies!

24-2 - James McDonald
25-14 - Travis Hafner
26-2 - Nyger Morgan
27-14 - Felipe Paulino
28-2 - Dustin McGowan
29-14 - Lonnie Chisenhall
30-2 - Dillon Gee
Last edited by Glenneration X on Sat Apr 07, 2012 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:11 pm

KJ Duke wrote:Lowy ! :mrgreen:

Nice meeting you in person as well Glenn. As involved as you are, you need to join the regular crowd in Vegas - the party gets bigger and better every year. 8-) Too bad we couldn't squeeze in a poker game, next year let's can get it on the schedule early.


I squeezed in a few poker games. ;)

I'll definitely be back in Vegas next year. I enjoyed the venue and the people there tremendously.
Catch you soon Bud, thanks and take it easy on me in the leagues we're battling in this year.
Remember my rule. Take it easy on the rookie. ;) :D
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:31 pm

Back from dinner at my parents, the kids all down to bed, the wife watching a chick flick. Perfect time to finish up my draft reviews. All that's left is my 15-teamers from Vegas second weekend, the Main Event and the Diamond. We'll start with the Main.

Second Weekend Main Event - 3/31 Vegas - Draft Slot 14

Even with the Diamond, Ultimate Auction, and MtM Super on my draft agenda this year, the Main Event is as important to me as any draft or auction. After all, it is the Main Event. Having cashed in the Main for all three of my first three years in this contest, it's important to me to keep that streak going. Having battled near the top of the Main Event Overall just two years back, I want back there again, this time being able to pull it out. It won't be easy. This Vegas league was loaded. RT, Chad Schroeder, Wayne Edwards, John Menna, Gates, Derek Van Riper, and on and on, the roster of successful owners I'll have to find a way to finish on top of here is ridiculous. I'll work hard trying to find a way. I once again set my KDS for this league 1-15, but amazingly for the 2nd straight Main ended up with the 14th draft slot. I wonder what the odds of that happening are, probably pretty long. I once again hoped that Hanley would fall to that spot, but was even less optimistic than I was for the first weekend, as his draft stock continued to rise. If he wasn't there, I was set to once again take the best player available and go from there.

1.14 - Hanley Ramirez - SS - I was very happy to see Hanley had fallen to me here. However, what would have been a lightning quick pick ended up taking the full minute as I was even more surprised to see that Robinson Cano had fallen to this spot as well. How could I possibly pass on Cano here? I thought long and hard about taking him, but eventually went with my initial Hanley plan as both Kinsler and Pedroia were available as well assuring me of a top 2B option in the 2nd.

2.2 - Ian Kinsler - 2B - John Menna grabbed Cano as expected but left me the choice of Kinsler and Pedroia for my pick here. I quickly grabbed Kinsler as pairing him with Hanley may come with its share of risk, but with immense reward potential as well with such huge power speed options rostered for the middle infield. I was really happy with this start.

3.14 - Felix Hernandez - SP1 - I was set to grab a starter at this turn and was again pleasantly surprised to find King Felix still on the board here. I know that wins may be rare in Seattle, but on skills alone there may not be more than one or two pitchers that match up with the King.

4.2 - Mike Napoli - C1 - I wanted a big power hitter here and to find one at another scarce position here seemed like a strong choice. I briefly considered doubling up with another top starting option or grabbing one of the quickly disappearing pool of 3B, but to get the potential for 30 home runs from catcher to match up with Hanley & Kinsler seemed like the best road to follow.

5.14 - Mike Bumgarner - SP2 - I grabbed my 2nd ace. I chose him over Josh Johnson, Matt Moore, & Yu Darvish. He's a safer health option than Josh and the NL and home park were the tie-breakers for him over Moore & Darvish. I believe he has the opportunity, skill set, and career arc to step into the pitching elite this year.

6.2 - Kevin Youkilis - 3B - I was not thrilled making this pick. I suffered through Youk's consistent battles with boo-boos last season on many a team and am very sour on him. However, 6th round. If Youk stays healthy and rebounds this year, this price could be a steal. He's also the last available option at 3B before that huge tier drop I referenced in the post on the first weekend Main. I feel I have no choice but to grab him here.

7.14 - Mike Morse - 1B - I know he's hurt to start the season, but I'm still surprised to see him available at the end of the 7th. I'll deal with the one week he's sidelined to start the season and grab a solid power/average option at a discount.

8.2 - Cory Hart - OF1 - As stated in the first weekend Main's draft review, I'm really high on Hart this year. He's not available anywhere near this late if not for the spring injury. I grab another decent power/average option at a discount, this one capable of throwing in a few steals as well. Andre Ethier went with the pick just prior to Hart, Heyward and Werth almost immediately followed. This was the time to grab a potential power OF.

9.14 - Jesus Montero - UT - It seemed like the right call at the time. Another solid bat, building potential power and average upon potential power and average. There's a solid chance he gains catcher eligibility giving him increased value and giving me increased flexibility. Now looking back however, I'm not sure it was the right move. If he doesn't gain the catching eligibility, he becomes just a solid bat in my lineup and locks up my utility position for the entire season. I suppose we'll see how the season plays out, but I can see this pick being a make or break one.

10.2 - Max Scherzer - SP3 - Closers are starting to fly off the boards. Nine are already taken and John Menna at the turn just grabbed two. The safe play would have been to grab one here, especially with 26 more picks until the draft gets back to me. Still, the big K-rate starting pitchers are growing scarce and Scherzer is staring me square in the eyes. If I don't take him here, there's no way he makes it back (verified by Wayne Edwards stating he was ready to take him with the very next pick). I roll the dice on closers and push them back another turn while grabbing a pitcher with huge upside if he can just put it all together this year.

11.14 - Alex Rios - OF2 - Twelve more closers go off the boards for a total of 21. I have to take one at this turn, should probably take two. I decide though that I want another hitter here as well and would push my second closer another turn. I know that Menna won't grab another after taking one last turn, so I grab my hitter here. Feeling like it's time to look back towards potential speed, I grab a player here who had a monster season just two years ago before a complete flop last year. I can't see how he can't regress somewhat. He should be such a better player than he's shown thus far in his career. I'm not hoping for two years ago. Give me something towards the middle of the two extremes seen the last two years and I'll be more than happy for grabbing him here.

12.2 - Sean Marshall - RP1 - As Marshall hadn't been officially named the closer as of yet, there were still safer options on the board. Still I knew he was likely to get the job and if he did, he had the skills to excel at it. My first closer was in the books.

13.14 - Logan Morrison - OF3 - I had Lucas Duda all queued up here, but Wayne snagged him right before my pick. I switch to my backup plan and grab Morrison here. Morrison seems to be flying under the radar this preseason as last year's disappointing finish along with some injury concerns this spring has depressed his price. This is the same player however who was hyped as one of the next superstars last preseason. The skills remain. Let's get the body feeling better and the head on straight and we could have a steal here.

14.2 - Jim Johnson - RP2 - I have Johnson on a few teams as I almost always pushed at least the 2nd closer this year and Johnson seems to always be one of the last taken. What can I say, he has the job. Paying big for a closer is not something I was anxious to do this year. Just ask the Soria, Madson, Bailey, and Farnsworth owners why.

15-14 - Lorenzo Cain - OF4 - I feel the need for more speed and am happy that one of the spring breakout stars are still on the board. Will he be the power/speed asset that he hinted at this spring? At a minimum, he should provide a decent BA and steals. That's all I'm asking for, anything more would be a bonus here.

16-2 - Neftali Feliz - SP4 - Again as stated with my prior teams, I'm a believer.

17-14 - Carlos Pena - CI - Ugh. I know, BA risk extroadinaire. However, I believe I've got created a decent BA base up to this point and can absorb some BA risk (or should I say certainty :? ) here. At a minimum, he'll provide as Wayne said, some meat.

18-2 - Zack Cozart - MI - When waiting on MI, Cozart is a nice high upside choice who could provide a nice profit for a cheap price.

19-14 - Scott Baker - SP5 - When will I ever learn???

20-2 - Jonathon Niese - SP6 - His skills say that he's a potential breakout candidate this year. Add that to the breakout team he's on :D and you've got the potential for real profit here.

21-14 - Mike Carp - OF5 - Another potential power bat with some position flexibility. Hopefully he gets healthy soon as I need him to get me some AB's.

22-2 - Andres Torres - OF6 - I have him everywhere as a cheap speed option. His latest calf injury hurts this team more than most as it is handcuffed with stashed players. I'll have to figure out something this FAAB. Something's got to give.

23-14 - Carlos Zambrano - SP7 - Maybe the change of location is what he needs to get his head on straight. I'm just hoping he doesn't implode again.

24-2 - Trevor Bauer
25-14 - Glen Perkins
26-2 - Ryan Vogelsong
27-14 - Henry Rodriguez
28-2 - Josh Donaldson
29-14 - Roy Oswalt
30-2 - Shelley Duncan
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:47 pm

Diamond League - 4/1 Vegas - Draft Slot 2

The last draft review of my 2012 draft season will be for what was easily the biggest draft of my season. No, change that. The biggest draft of my life, the Diamond. Showing up to the draft room early Sunday morning, you could feel the intensity. Everyone seemed just a bit on edge, a little uneasy. This league was filled with some of the greatest players of our contests. Still, there was a lot on the line. One league. $10K buy-in. $75K for the winner. It doesn't get any more intense than that. I didn't sleep a wink the night before, the second night since I've been in Vegas that I went without any sleep. I think it helped as I felt more relaxed than I should have. My KDS for this draft was 1-15, I ended up with slot 2. I would start the draft with either Pujols or Miggy, whomever fell, and build from there.

1-2 - Miguel Cabrera - 1B - I wanted a safe power/average bat at corner to start with, Miggy fit the bill.

2-14 - Cliff Lee - SP1 - I was comfortable grabbing a safe ace here. I've grabbed Cliff Lee in a few drafts from around this spot. I think he provides a solid anchor for my pitching staff.

3-2 - Brett Lawrie - 3B - My first risky pick. I thought briefly about Carlos Santana, but felt compelled to take a 3B here. Beltre, Zimmerman, and Sandoval were all already taken in the 2nd. I'm not sure there'd be a quality 3B left by my next turn if I passed on one here. I thought about my boy David Wright. It was a tough call. I was extremely high on Lawrie going into the preseason draft season, but his rising ADP scared me off early on. It's taken me the entire preseason to convince myself that he still has upside from this price point, but as of right now I believe he does. I believe his upside is what David Wright once was. I take him instead of what David Wright now is. This could be the make or break pick of this draft for me.

4-14 - Brandon Phillips - 2B - Safe, reliable, power/speed option in the middle infield. Rollins and Zobrist went the two picks just prior to Phillips, Dee Gordon went immediately after.

5-2 - Alex Gordon - OF1 - If any position dropped in this draft to this point, it was OF. I grab a power/speed option to anchor the position for me. I've now grabbed three straight players who should contribute to both HR's and SB's. I'm feeling pretty good about my offense at this point.

6-14 - Adam Wainwright - SP2 - Since my last pick, many of the second tier aces were quickly grabbed off the board as 9 of the next 24 picks were starting pitchers. Luckily, there was a short reprieve as only one other starter went in the next 7 picks leaving the last starting pitcher I wanted in that tier waiting for me in Wainwright. I feel lucky that he was still available.

7-2 - Alex Avila - C1 - Posey went a few picks earlier and I grab the last catcher I have in the first extended tier.

8-14 - Brandon Beachy - SP3 - There's a huge lull in drafted SP's as not one other was taken in this round. I was very happy to end the drought and grab Beachy here who I believe may be poised for big things this year considering the K-rate and experience he garnered last season.

9-2 - Ike Davis - CI - I wanted Paul Goldschmidt at this turn, but he was taken just prior to my Beachy pick. Freeman and Lind were also both taken in the 8th round. Davis makes me a bit nervous as all I know about Valley Fever is what I learned from watching it destroy Conor Jackson's career. Still, Ike Davis showed some real progress last year and if he can get past his physical concerns, may be poised to become a real asset in both power and average. I know in considering that Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Lind are all already off the board, if I want Davis I'd have to grab him here. I do.

10-14 - Heath Bell - RP1 - By this point, it's become apparant that two different teams are employing the Jim Stanard all-reliever strategy. Other teams are starting to grab relievers as well. I decide to grab one of my top choices here before the all-reliever teams create a panic and all out bank run on the position.

11-2 - Yoenis Cespedes - OF2 - I believe I have enough BA coverage to absorb the BA risk Cespedes presents and grab the power and speed upside he offers. Another risk/reward pick, however one for a player I have been high on all draft season.

12-14 - Frank Francisco - RP2 - Even with a pair of all-reliever teams, Francisco is still available to me late. Come on home Francisco.

13-2 - Torii Hunter - OF3 - I want to start filling the OF positions with some solid power options before they start growing even more scarce. Hunter is definitely on the downside of his career, but should still provide some decent power and counting stats.

14-14 - Logan Morrison - OF4 - Another OF at a depressed price due to his issues last year and some injury issues this spring. He has the talent to be an asset at both power and average here.

15-2 - Ubaldo Jiminez - SP4 - I know he had an awful year last season and many are down on him, but I believe his downside is completely priced in at this point and it makes him almost a complete upside pick. If he regresses even partially, this could be one of the most profitable picks I've made in this draft.

16-14 - Jason Bay - OF5 - Seriously, how much lower can Bay get. If he gives me 15 HR and 10 SB's, certainly not beyond his current production rates, he'll be more than worth this price. If he bounces all the way back (even I'm not expecting that), he'll turn a huge profit. I don't think there's much risk at all taking him at this price point and because of that, I've managed to roster him on several teams this year.

17-2 - Johan Santana - SP5 - I don't think he'll ever get back to being vintage Johan, but he still is Johan. If he stays healthy (no guarantee of course), I don't believe there's any way he doesn't turn a profit at this cost.

18-14 - Alcides Escobar - SS - I feel like I need a real injection of speed. There are better shortstops still available, but none that offer the speed potential of Alcides. Hopefully, he progresses a bit this year and provides not only the SB's I need, but some additional production in the other categories as well.

19-2 - Chris Ianetta - C2 - Power late from the catching position. New team, new start, could this year be the year we've been waiting for?

20-14 - Erik Bedard - SP6 - If he gives me half a season at his typical production per inning, he'll be more than worth this cost.

21-2 - Yunel Escobar - MI - Low ceiling, high floor, should provide some BA coverage, a bit of power, and decent counting stats at an extremely cheap price.

22-14 - Brad Lidge - RP3 - How many times over the years have we heard a pitcher with arm problems was only a few weeks away? Until Storen is officially back, this pick has serious upside.

23-2 - Chone Figgins - UT - Speed in the OF has been stripped bare at this point. Well, look at that. I found some hiding at corner.

24-14 - Mike Leake
25-2 - Aubrey Huff
26-14 - Josh Collmenter
27-2 - Drew Smiley
28-14 - Omar Infante
29-2 - Wei-Yin Chen
30-14 - Julio Borbon


With that, my draft reviews are over. This season, I've drafted Overalls and private leagues, only leagues and mixed, 15-teamers and 12-teamers, drafts and auctions, keeper leagues and re-drafts, fast drafts and slow. They are all now in the books. Tomorrow is our first FAAB. Monday starts our first full week of baseball. The fantasy baseball season is underway and racing ahead. I hope it's a successful one.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Mon Apr 09, 2012 8:29 pm

The first FAAB is officially in the books and the fantasy baseball season now feels like it's really underway.

What was my FAAB focus week one? Seriously, what else could it be with the way this season has started. Closers. Even though I've been relatively lucky thus far in avoiding the Soria, Madson, Bailey, Storen, Thornton, etc., etc., etc. meatgrinder that has been terrorizing the saves draft strategies of my fellow NFBC-ers, the Farnsworth injury did affect a couple of my 12-teamers and all this bullpen turnover has reminded me how unbelievably volatile the closer position can be. Where I lost Farnsworth, I placed significant bids on Hector Santiago and won him for both teams. However, even where my teams weren't affected and I still had two or even three healthy and viable closers at my disposal, I placed bids on each of the closers available through FAAB and managed to roster Fernando Rodney for three of those squads. This early season is a reminder that you can never have enough closers and this week seemed to me that rare opportunity to obtain a closer with the role "relatively" cheaply because of how many were available in waivers. With the list of those available ranging from Santiago to Rodney, to Lidge and Henry Rodriguez, and in some leagues even Broxton and Aceves, why not further stabilize a position that is so inherently unstable. I'm very happy to have avoided most of the disasters that have affected the closer role so far this season and even happier to have been able to add a few to my fantasy rosters. Santiago got a save today, paying me back already. :)

Image
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Apr 10, 2012 4:00 pm

When it comes to injuries in the NFBC, sometimes timing is everything. Last night, Brandon Phillips pulled himself out of the game when he suffered some cramping in his left hamstring. Dusty Baker just announced that Phillips will likely be sidelined for 3-4 games. Great. Phillips is the starting 2B for two of my most important teams this year, the Diamond and MtM. Yesterday was of course Monday. Doesn't it always seem like these day to day type injuries occur on a Monday?

A day earlier and I get to swap Phillips out for Omar Infante in my Diamond league and Infante's two home run day yesterday wouldn't have been wasted on my bench. A day earlier and I could have picked up a healthy backup for Phillips in the MtM (my only MI backup there right now is Stephen Drew due to injuries at other positions) instead of just hoping that the injury doesn't linger a few days longer making the entire week a big fat zero at the position. No, instead of Sunday, Phillips hurts himself on Monday and the pain to my fantasy prospects is probably greater than the pain to his leg. The Fantasy Gods sure have a rotten sense of timing.....and a worse sense of humor. :?

Image
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Apr 10, 2012 10:15 pm

And so it begins.....

The Brandon Phillips "cramping" starts the inevitable calvacade of players rostered on the Glenneration X squads going down with various life threatening maladies.

- Michael Morse feels renewed "discomfort" while making relay throws in a rehab game, shut down indefinitely.

- David Wright X-rays show a small "pinky fracture", return dependent upon pain tolerance, shut down indefinitely.

- Justin Upton scratched due to jambed thumb, X-rays were negative, but it "just didn't feel right".

- Lorenzo Cain pulled from game after "bumping" into wall making catch, boo-boo to be re-evaluated in the morning. :roll:

Are you kidding me??? Hockey players get decapitated every other game just to return after reattaching their head with a butterfly stitch between periods and these baseball "athletes" are day to day because of a runny nose??
Goddamn, I wish these spoiled prima donnas would just put away their skirts and man up once in a while.

Image
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby headhunters » Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:53 pm

sorry glenn- hockey players USED TO play through all that. see toews and crosby. you will be watching a very very watered down sports landscape for the rest of your life. players are going to sit with injuries- especially concussions. in chicago- fans are paying $300- $500 a night NOT to see toews or rose play. the only good news here is those tickets would be twice that in ny.
headhunters
 
Posts: 1953
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:07 pm

I hate to have a third straight injury related blog post, but since I drafted him in four leagues including both of my Main Events......

Image

When will I ever &%$*@# learn!?!
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby mlbbug » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:53 pm

Glenn, you are truly a classy guy and I was glad to see you again this year at your Super draft in Mahwah.I would relish the chance to draft against you again in the future. I really feel sorry for you with the Scott Baker news! :cry: :cry: :cry: Hopefully this will end your man crush on Baker once and for all. Btw.... I have on my AL-only auction team(non- NFBC). :oops:

Rich McCormick
Astoria,NY
mlbbug
 
Posts: 272
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:45 am

mlbbug wrote:Glenn, you are truly a classy guy and I was glad to see you again this year at your Super draft in Mahwah.I would relish the chance to draft against you again in the future. I really feel sorry for you with the Scott Baker news! :cry: :cry: :cry: Hopefully this will end your man crush on Baker once and for all. Btw.... I have on my AL-only auction team(non- NFBC). :oops:

Rich McCormick
Astoria,NY


Thanks Rich. However, you're a little off base when referring to my having a "man crush" towards Scott Baker. My man crush as you put it, or what I can not seem to shake, and what I believe is my biggest weakness in this hobby of ours, is my affinity towards elite but injury prone arms. It goes back to the days of Mark Prior and Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. I can't seem to lay off these guys when I see them at perceived "value". I always think, what if?

I remember in 2010, I drafted a Main Event team that was getting some attention during the time when everyone was posting their teams on the boards. I had gotten off to a great start in that draft with Pujols and Lincecum and Cargo late and several were commenting that the team looked very dangerous. I was relatively new to the NFBC at the time and was admittedly eating up the positive reviews. :D However two NFBC vets much better at this game than I am took the time to interrupt the good press by questioning a couple risky picks that I had made, the biggest of the unnecessary risks in their mind being Brandon Webb. They didn't understand why I would take on a risk like that when I had created such a nice edge with my earlier picks. The two who questioned that risk were Kent Stermon and Shawn Childs. My response was that I had realized that I had lucked into an edge in my earlier picks and that I was going for the knockout blow if Webb came back healthy and in his former Cy Young form as my #4 starter. It turned out Webb never did make it back that season. That team still went on to finish 4th overall. However, I look back and wonder where it would have finished if I had made a smarter, safer pick instead of Webb, or instead of Brian Roberts, another risk/reward choice that I invested a 5th round pick in that didn't work out and that Kent and Shawn also questioned. I'll never know, but common sense says I might have had an even better finish.

You'd think I'd have learned from that experience and the experiences with the Priors, Sheets, and Hardens of years gone by. However, addiction is a bitch. Whenever a season ends, I swear off these risky starters forever. Then the next year's draft season begins and I just can't help myself. Thus Scott Baker on four of my squads and both Main Events. Thus Josh Johnson, Johan Santana, and Erik Bedard still inhabiting the rosters of many of my teams. Still, what if? :)

Rich, I enjoyed seeing you again in Mahwah as well. I'm sure we'll draft together again in the near future, even though I don't look forward to it as much as you do. I've had my fill of drafting against great players. ;)



One more unrelated note..... Today for one day and one day only, fantasy baseball takes a back seat to another sport. Well maybe not a back seat, let's put it in the shotgun position. :D

As Mike (Outlaw) and Mike (headhunters) both know, the hockey playoffs have started!!! Tonight is Game 1 of the Rangers' destined run to another Stanley Cup. Throw on your Rangers gear everyone, the Garden should be rocking tonight!!!

Image

Image
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby gpchurchill » Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:24 am

[quote="Glenneration X"]

what I believe is my biggest weakness in this hobby of ours, my affinity towards elite but injury prone arms. It goes back to the days of Mark Prior and Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. I can't seem to lay off these guys when I see them at perceived "value". I always think, what if?

tough sell, trying to wean oneself off drafting the perceived 'knock-out blow'. i think we are all guilty at some level of compromising our teams prospects by over-drafting risk. in some sense, the choice to draft baker despite the clear warning signs, represents a microcosm of one aspect of our involvement in the hobby; turn a small investment into a large profit. we understand we have to do well AND get very lucky. using that logic, the decision to draft risky arms is correct, but perhaps your timing is off ( baker, or some similar penny stock, is a good gamble, last few rounds of the reserve, but often not any earlier, when you more likely would draft more reliable production ).
gpchurchill
 
Posts: 128
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:04 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby KJ Duke » Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:59 pm

gpchurchill wrote:
tough sell, trying to wean oneself off drafting the perceived 'knock-out blow'. i think we are all guilty at some level of compromising our teams prospects by over-drafting risk. in some sense, the choice to draft baker despite the clear warning signs, represents a microcosm of one aspect of our involvement in the hobby; turn a small investment into a large profit. we understand we have to do well AND get very lucky.


I had avoided Josh Johnson in double-digit drafts from January all the way up until the last draft day of the season, and then he's on my Diamond team. Ditto Mike Morse in the Ultimate Auction a few hours later. The knock out blow instead becomes a swing and a miss and we take a counter-punch to the gut. Then it's back to basics, fighting to recover that edge on the waiver wire.
User avatar
KJ Duke
 
Posts: 6343
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby mlbbug » Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:44 pm

Let's go Rangers!!!!!!!! 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) Watch some playoff hockey and forget about fantasy baseball for a night. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
mlbbug
 
Posts: 272
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Outlaw » Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:58 pm

Glen- I'm even rooting for the Rangers this year.... That was Herasy back in the 70's thru the 90's for me to sya that. Stanley Cup playoff hockey is some of the most intense, exciting sports and since the advent of HD TV, its awesome to watch.
User avatar
Outlaw
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Outlaw » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:27 am

How about that Rangers 4-2 display last night...they should rolln 5 games,ossibly even a sweep
User avatar
Outlaw
 
Posts: 1466
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Mon Apr 16, 2012 3:48 pm

Two weeks of the NFBC fantasy baseball season are now in the books. I have some teams performing extremely well in the early going (both Mains, a pair of XII's, a couple other teams here and there :D ), some maybe not so well to put it lightly (the Diamond, the Ultimate Auction, a couple other teams here and there :x ). Still, none of it really matters much at this point, it's way too early. Short of a major injury (sorry Ellsbury owners or any of the owners of the two dozen or so closers that have gone down with season ending injuries so far this season :? ), our teams are still the same teams we drafted just a couple weeks back and the sample size at this point shouldn't be enough to change the way we view them.

For my teams doing poorly, I always remind myself of my first year in the NFBC, where my Main Event team was wallowing in the bottom 10 of the overall at the end of May, a full two months into the season, before a crazy turnaround over the summer brought the team all the way up to a high of 14th overall just prior to the NFFC football drafts, just three months later. On the other hand for my teams doing well, I need to remind myself of just last season when my NYC Main Event team started hot and was sitting in the top 20 of the overall at the beginning of May, before injuries, bad performances, and frankly some bad decisions on my part led to it spiraling to depths probably never before seen in the history of fantasy sports. :?

At this very time in 2008, two weeks into that season, Bobby Jurney's Main Event team stood in 2nd to last of the Overall. He won it all that year. Hopefully my teams that started poorly can have a similar comeback story. Hopefully my teams that started hot will hold on. :) We'll see, we're two weeks in. We'll know better with two weeks left.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:27 am

There are a lot of things about fantasy baseball that make it such an enjoyable hobby. One of the biggest for me is when I see the two words "Probable Pitcher" followed by the name of one on my roster. I truly enjoy the process of checking the lineups of probable pitchers each morning to see which starting pitchers on my various teams are scheduled to take the mound that day. Will it be one of my upside guys for whom I'm hoping for a breakout? Will it be one of my pickups from the previous FAAB for whom I'm looking for some validation for funds spent? Hopefully, will it be one of my aces? :D


Last night was one of those nights I had several pitchers on several of my teams scheduled. Always exciting to see. 8-) The excitement didn't last long. :? The following pitching lines littered my team stats for the night:

Francisco Liriano - 2.1 innings, 7 hits, 5 earned runs, 4 walks, 2 strikeouts :?

Johan Santana - 1.1 innings, 4 hits, 4 earned runs, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts :o

Jon Lester - 2 innings, 8 hits, 7 earned runs, 4 walks, 2 strikeouts :shock:



Yikes!!! That sucked! But as ugly as all three starts were to bear, the worst of the bunch for me was Lester's, by far.

I wisely kept my distance from Liriano for most of the draft season, all the way until my very last draft, for which I was finally seduced by his stellar preseason into drafting him as the 5th starter for my one and only Online Championship team. However, I can take solace in the fact that he was only able to destroy the pitching stats for that one team, a team that required one of my lighter investments. Santana I have as my 5th starter on two teams. However, I was luckily able to mitigate that damage by somehow sitting him this week for my Diamond squad. Whew!!! Yes, Liriano and Santana were able to doom the pitching stats of one of my teams each, but honestly you understand that your 5th starters may occassionally have that blow up start that you have to deal with, it comes with the territory.

Lester on the other hand, is one of those "aces" I count on and for three different teams. Those teams, the Ultimate Auction, my 1st weekend Main, and Max's 1000 Slow. :shock: And of course, I didn't sit him for any. :cry: The damage done is painful. While you can anticipate the occassional blowup from your 5th starters, you count on your aces for being the ones whose starts balance that damage out......not contribute to it!!

It'll take a lot from the rest of my staffs to mitigate the damage done yesterday. I know, I know, it's early. Just this past weekend, I had to remind a friend of that while talking him off the ledge after he dealt with blowup start after blowup start last week. Hopefully someone will remind me of that while talking me off the ledge this week.
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Quahogs » Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:16 am

Image

"Jump. jumpjumpjumpjumpjump! Ahh JUMP. JUMP JUMP JUMP !"

"I've looked at your rosters Mr Lowry. So so sorry"

:D
User avatar
Quahogs
 
Posts: 2361
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:50 pm

:mrgreen:

I don't even warrant a stick figure jumping off the ledge Mr. Juprinka? (I know I spelled it wrong, but as long as we're all adding r's to each other's name. By the way Juprinka, it's one thing when Mr. Erdwards does it innocently..... ;) )

PS....Remind me to take you off my speed dial for emergencies in case I ever do decide to jump. :o
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:05 pm

Image
Francisco, why the hell are you smiling???

Another freakin' bad outing and blown save by the closer I drafted more than any other. That makes four straight appearances Frankie's given up at least one run.
In case I haven't mentioned this before..... I HATE Closers!!! Image

I guess I could be worse off and have drafted Soria, Madson, Storen, or Wilson everywhere. Or maybe not. At least those owners don't have to deal with WHIP and ERA destruction on top of the lost save opportunities. :?
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Chasing the NFBC 2012 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:30 am

By the end of today, Week 3 of the major league baseball and NFBC seasons goes in the books and I have only one thing to say. Thank God!!! What a brutal week.

My streak of misfortune actually started last weekend. I should have known things were starting to go the wrong way when a computer issue at work caused me to miss a Friday afternoon lineup deadline by a single minute preventing me from switching in Aubrey Huff for Torii Hunter in my Diamond league. Though I E-mailed Tom prior to first pitch to ask that he manually put in the switch, I was advised that STATS has put a nix on manual lineup moves this season due to “legal” concerns. Of course, Huff immediately had his best game of the season with a homer and handful of ribbies while Hunter went (for what should have been expected considering the circumstances) 0 for 8 for the lineup period. Though I didn’t see it at the time, that was an early sign that the karma surrounding my teams was shifting and that this was just going to be the tipping point for a rough week ahead.

Lineup decisions that I MEANT to make backfired as well. Sitting Ike Davis and Jason Bay during the first half of this week due to their slow starts and Bay’s finger issue for any team where I had other viable options with 4 starts compared to their three cost me as well. Of course a combined three home runs and a steal followed and are forever lost for those teams’ stats. Then a player that I kept in my lineups, Stanton 10 rounds later, gets left out of Arizona’s lineup in back to back games for Lyle “I Didn’t Even Know He was Still on a Major League Roster” Overbay by Over-manager Kirk Gibson.

There was the infamous Night of the Blowup Massacre that saw Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, and even Jon Lester do irreparable harm to the WHIP’s and ERA’s of a number of my teams. Not to be outdone, both the closer I drafted more often than any other, Frank “Gas on the Fire” Francisco, and the closer I spent the most FAAB on in Hector “There’s 300 in FAAB I’ll Never See Again” Santiago not only put the WHIP’s and ERA’s of many of my teams in jeopardy but also the tenuous holds they have on their closer positions. Top it all off with Alfredo “Need I Say More” Aceves and my ratios may never recover.

It was also a fun week for injuries. It seemed like every player I had in every one of my lineups missed at least some time due to “day to day” injuries or issues. From Justin Upton and Ryan Zimmerman, to John Jay and Logan Morrison, to Asdrubal Cabrera and Chipper Jones, to Mitch Moreland and Nolan Reimold, and to Brandon Phillips and Omar Infante who I not only lost on multiple teams but for one team, the Diamond of course, are both my starting and backup 2ndbasemen. :? You know things are tough when you’re trying to decide which injured player might make it back quicker to minimize the amount of days you have to take a zero. Still all those lineup zeroes were bearable. Yesterday’s injury news wasn’t. Out of nowhere, Ryan Dempster, Dan Hudson, and then most painfully Cliff Lee all got placed on the disabled list following starts where they all looked good and none showed any indication of being injured. I’m guessing that they didn’t get injured during the games. That it was all this week’s evil karma that injured them in their sleep. :o Then I wake up this morning to discover that the Injury Fairy was at work again last night as Sergio Santos was placed on the disabled list from the time I fell asleep to the time I woke up. Wow.

And worst of all this week……how the hell did I manage not to draft Matt Kemp anywhere??? :(

Well, the week’s almost over. One more day. For me, it can’t end soon enough. OK, bitching session’s over and it’s time to man up. Tomorrow’s a new day and thankfully the start of a brand new week as well. :D

But if anything else rotten happens to any of my squads today, I may have to borrow this guy to help excise the evil spirits from my teams.

Image
User avatar
Glenneration X
 
Posts: 3699
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
Location: Long Island, NY

PreviousNext

Return to Fantasy/MLB Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest