Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:38 am

It's only been a week since the NYC drafts ended, less than two weeks since I flew back from Vegas. Strange, it seems like it's been so much longer. I had a fantastic time in both venues, spending time drafting and catching up with old friends, as well as partaking in some of the other pastimes visiting these cities for the NFBC draft weekends offer. I'll tell you though, spending pretty much two straight weeks traveling, living out of hotels, packing your days full of drafts, auctions, and other activities, and extending your nights into the wee hours, all part of a typical live draft experience for this great hobby of ours, is exhausting, and leaves me with quite a bit of catching up to do when getting home. And not only for sleep.

I haven't participated on the boards much since finishing the Countdown to the NFBC prior to the first weekend Main. On top of the packed agenda in Vegas and NYC, it's been a crazy week since I got home. Though I tried to keep up remotely while away, I fell behind at work and put in quite a few extra hours this week to get caught up. Well, try to get caught up. Plenty of responsibilities at home needed to be brought current as well. Life unfortunately doesn't stop for our NFBC draft experience. Taxes needed to be completed and filed. I coach my son's pee wee team and our first game was this weekend. And the coming of spring always brings with it the coming of spring parties and gettogethers, and my wife and family reminded me we had plenty of those this first weekend back as well. And of course, now that the fun of the NFBC drafts are over, we're onto the business of managing those teams we rostered, and the work of FAAB.

Still, I wouldn't trade any of it for the world. The two weekends of NFBC fun were a blast. But it's also great to be home.
I love it all.

This will be my 7th year in high stakes fantasy sports. It's my 7th year with the NFBC and taking part in its Main Event. It will be my 6th year writing this blog. There's one difference going into this year. Though some might look at my fantasy sports accomplishments last year and consider it another mildly successful one, I did suffer my share of disappointments. Not the smallest of which was that for the first time, I did not cash for any of my NFBC Main Event teams. Prior to 2014, I had cashed for at least one Main Event entry each year. I know it's not the most amazing or significant accomplishment in NFBC history, and that it was something that only had meaning to me, but it was something to me. I was proud of this streak and disappointed to have it end.

This year I will try to start a new streak. I have three Main Event entries. One was again sponsored by BHQ and for the third year I will be chronicling that team on their website. The other two were drafted live, one in Vegas, one in NYC. With these three teams, I will again be Chasing the NFBC.

Shortly, I will be off to one of those family responsibilities I mentioned earlier, my niece's birthday party. When I return later today, I'll try to provide a quick draft summary for those teams with which I will be making this year's chase.
Last edited by Glenneration X on Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:57 pm

I've done draft summaries for my Main Event teams every year since 2010, my 2nd year in the NFBC. I typically like to post these earlier while my thoughts are still very fresh. However, other priorities since my return home from the NFBC weekends made that impossible. Still, this should allow for a different perspective than my summaries from past years, as though my thoughts from the actual drafts are still somewhat fresh, they are also influenced by events since these draft and the season's first week.

LAS VEGAS MAIN EVENT - PICK 11

This was my first 15 team draft since the Mia Draft at the beginning of March. My first 15 team FAAB draft of the season. My KDS for this draft was 1-15, as I believed there was a significant advantage to being top 8 this season, both in the 1st and 3rd rounds. However as luck, and the computer draft generator would have it, I ended up with pick 11. I was not thrilled with that pick, and thought to win from the back end, it was imperative to shift gears somewhat from a traditional strategy. I had decided going into this draft that unless one of the consensus top 8 fell to the 11 hole, I would try to gain an edge elsewhere by drafting either King Felix or Scherzer in the first as I did not feel either would make it back to me at 2.5. I would then grab the best possible hitter in the 2nd, hopefully Encarnacion, Tulo, or Hanley, as in drafts I'd seen to date, one of them would sometimes fall.

1.11 - Edwin Encarnacion - Steve Jupinka is a great guy. I look forward to seeing and hanging out with him each year in both Vegas and NYC. However, as much as I enjoy his company for a drink or two, I can think of about 449 Main Event players I'd rather see drafting in my league 2 spots ahead of me. At pick 9, obviously thinking along the same lines I was, Jupinka took King Felix off the board. KC Cha, who I drafted next to both in this Main and the Diamond the next day, each time with him enduring massive hangovers while keeping me entertained through both drafts with his moans of suffering quieted by sips of the dog that bit him, immediately followed by grabbing Scherzer. I had no reason to expect both Felix and Scherzer to be off the board by pick 10. I was forced to shift gears and had one minute to do so. After deciding I didn't want Strasburg that early, I went with an old standby of mine in Edwin Encarnacion. I think Encarnacion is mildly unappreciated this season as he has as much power as almost anyone in the game, peripherals that suggest his BA ceiling has not yet been reached, plays in a bandbox of a home park in the middle of a strong lineup, and can throw in a handful of steals. He's become one of my personal faves and one of "my guys". I have him on quite a few of my teams this year.

2.5 - Jose Altuve - Hanley, Tulo, and Strasburg were all drafted to end the 1st round. I thought about Price or Sale, but instead decided to grab a player who broke out in a big way last year, that if proven to be his new norm was being underdrafted in the 2nd round. Mostly though, I really liked Altuve in combination with Encarnacion, as it reminds me of a few years back when some were drafting Ryan Howard and Jacob Ellsbury from the back end to get a nice power/speed combination. I believe that my 1st two picks give me a reasonable expectation of 45/45 with a decent BA and a nice number of both runs & RBI's.

3.11 - Matt Kemp - I half hoped that one of Bumgarner, Kluber, or Harvey would be here as they sometimes fell to the mid-3rd, but as this is the NFBC Main Event where pitching is often pushed up, it wasn't meant to be. I considered Grienke, but was willing to risk he made it to my pick in the 4th to grab Kemp, a recent top of the 1st round talent who showed 2nd half last year that maybe that talent is still in play now that the injuries of recent seasons may be a thing of the past. Though not a consideration at the time, Arenado went next. Maybe I should have looked at him a little more closely.

4.5 - Jon Lester - Grienke didn't make it out of the 3rd, but I felt it imperative to start building on the pitching side. I chose Lester over Zimmerman and Hamels due to what I believe is a higher upside in K's than Zimmerman and W's than Hamels.

5.11 - Adam Wainwright - The NFBC seems to be a little down on Wainwright this year when compared to recent draft seasons despite his great numbers last season. This is likely due to some concerns with his peripherals 2nd half last year as well as some bumps and bruises this spring. Buying opportunity? We'll see.

6.5 - Devin Mesoraco - There's two schools of thought on buying catchers early. One is that it gives you a potential edge over those who are waiting to draft the scrubs typically available at the end of the draft. The other is it makes no sense to draft players that offer less counting stat production than the OF's or corners available at the same price point. I guess I fall into the former as I seemed to roster either Mesoraco, Lucroy, or Gomes in quite a few of my drafts. Gomes showed yesterday the other risk in drafting catchers early. They get hurt a lot. And what unfortunately I learned yet again today while trying to find a potential injury replacement in FAAB, is that there is none in FAAB.

7.11 - Jason Kipnis - A power speed option in the MI coming off an injury plagued season who was being drafted in the early 2nd last year. I was more than willing to bet a late 7th rounder that he can approach that value again.

8.5 - Sonny Gray - There was a nice tier of young upside SP's going in the 2nd half of the single digit rounds of this year's drafts that I believe make nice SP2 or 3 options. For this draft, many were gone by this point, Alex Wood taken the pick just prior to this one. Sonny Gray seemed to fall a bit within this tier due to his rough spring. Yet I'm still a believer. By grabbing him here, I felt I solidified my pitching staff and made it possible to compete with those who drafted pitching earlier than I did in this draft.

9.11 - Fernando Rodney - That 2nd tier of closers was starting to come of the boards. Being the Main Event, a closer run is always a possibility around this time of a draft. With 3 of the 4 teams that followed me until the 9/10 turn still without one closer and each having two picks before my next, as well as my desire to roster at least one somewhat reliable closer, I grabbed one here. I chose Rodney over Perkins, KRod, Papelbon and the others still left as I thought he was the best bet of the bunch to break the 40 save barrier if able to hold the job season long. Of course, today Rodney showed his downside in spectacular fashion. Well, at least I got a win out of it.

10.5 - Matt Holliday - I had my eye on David Wright here. Alas, he went two picks before me to a team with already 3 corners drafted. I thought this a great spot to mitigate Wright's downside, yet still gain potential profit with his still considerable upside. When Wright went, I grabbed another player that I thought shouldn't be available this late in the draft. I know Holliday's past his peak, but he still produces year in year out. Oftentimes, it's these reliable but comparatively "boring" players who fall way too far and create real buying opportunities and opportunities for profit.

11.11 - Manny Machado - Though disappointed when Wright went, I got over it relatively quickly because of Machado. I believe Machado has a huge ceiling. The only question is whether he hits it this year or in the years that come. The late 11th was a price I was more than willing to pay for that potential.

12.5 - Lucas Duda - The man hit 30 HR's last year. Works for me in the 12th. Plus he plays for an AWESOME squad.

13.11 - Jerard Weaver - The velocity concerns are real. However, he does seem to put up solid numbers every year and plays for a good squad. Some players just know how to pitch. In the 13th as a SP4, I'm hoping he can keep from falling off the cliff many of us are waiting for just one more season.

14.5 - Austin Jackson - I was feeling a need to start addressing speed again. Jackson's one of my fave bounceback candidates this season and someone who I feel should provide decent production in SB's, runs, and BA. Not a true Ben Revere type Judy either, he should be able to contribute double digit HR's, or close to it.

15.11 - Latroy Hawkins - I often push closers as far as possible. Unfortunately though, when you wait this long to grab a 2nd closer, this level is often all that's left. What's even more unfortunate is this wasn't even good value for where to grab Hawkins. I was surprised by how much later I'd see someone with the status that Hawkins held, a closer going into the season with the role, in some of the other drafts that took place later that and the next weekend.

16.5 - Justin Verlander - Verlander was a 2nd rounder just a year ago. One disappointing season, a less than spectacular spring, and a triceps cramp later and he was still available here in the 16th. At this price point and as my SP5, I thought this was more than enough of a discount to see if Verlander can regain something approaching his former ace status. He wouldn't even have to be an ace to profit from this low in the draft. Just don't be a disaster.

17.11/26.5 - Jake McGee/Bobby Parnell - The hope here is that Hawkins can be serviceable and hold onto the job at least until McGee and/or Parnell return from injury and to their prospective closer roles. Hopefully, between early season Hawkins and late season McGee/Parnell, I can put together at least one season's worth of closer stats.

18.5/19.11 - Denard Span/Coco Crisp - Most of the speed options I was looking at earlier were now gone. Span was already hurt and estimated out until May. Crisp's injury news wouldn't spiral from day to day to the need for surgery and a 6-8 week timetable until a few days after this draft. I'll try to hold onto both as long as possible as if and when healthy, they'll be productive, providing runs and SB's without hurting BA.

20.5/21.11 - Steven Vogt/Chris Owings - A couple late round upside plays at scarce positions.

22.5/25.11 - TJ House/Kirk Gibson - A couple of my favored late round pitching flyers. They've both shown signs that I've found intriguing that breakouts this season are possible. I've rostered one or the other, or in this case both, for plenty of my teams. The early returns this first week have been less than encouraging. I'll hold for a bit longer, but I won't wait long before cutting bait if those signs I thought I saw turns out to be mirages.

23.11/24.5 - Mitch Moreland/Jordan Schafer - 20 HR's from Moreland and 30 SB's from Schafer? I think it's certainly a possibility and would be nice combined production in the 23rd & 24th rounds.

27.11 - Kurt Suzuki - For two weeks, the placeholder until Vogt gets his catcher eligibility. Then he's waiver fodder.

28.5 - Bartolo Colon - The Opening Day starter for baseball's best pitching staff. That alone says something. I figured at worst I'd have a first week 2-start option. The fact that the results from taking that option was a 2-0 start with a sub 3.00 ERA was a nice return.

29.11/30.5 - Josh Rutledge/Nick Swisher - Every team needs to drop someone in early season FAAB. At least these guys made it easy.

I left the draft happy with this team's core and hopeful for its filler pieces. The early returns though haven't been promising. They've shown a closer situation that may be toxic, as well as a back end staff that may need more support than the drafted aces can provide. In addition, the long wait needed for Span and Crisp may hurt this team's speed, unless Schafer can hold the fort. I do think this team can challenge within the league if managed correctly, but that remains to be seen. I'm not sure that it's got the goods to compete in the Overall.

Well, it's time for some last minute FAAB tweaks. I'll finish up my Main Event draft reviews later tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby KJ Duke » Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:04 pm

Glenneration X wrote:22.5/25.11 - TJ House/Kirk Gibson - A couple of my favored late round pitching flyers. They've both shown signs that I've found intriguing that breakouts this season are possible. I've rostered one or the other, or in this case both, for plenty of my teams. The early returns this first week have been less than encouraging. I'll hold for a bit longer, but I won't wait long before cutting bait if those signs I thought I saw turns out to be mirages.


I think Kirk Gibson is in his mid-50's, but I commend you on taking him over the disaster that is Kyle Gibson. 8-)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Doctor Who » Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:29 pm

Great stuff Glenn. Love reading these as it always shows the insights and thoughts of other guys that know what they are doing! Or do they? :lol: I'm with you on Hawkins, as just wanted a month out of him, but looks like that wont be the case... At least your boy Colon provided me with a great first week!
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:34 pm

Doctor Who wrote:Great stuff Glenn. Love reading these as it always shows the insights and thoughts of other guys that know what they are doing! Or do they? :lol: I'm with you on Hawkins, as just wanted a month out of him, but looks like that wont be the case... At least your boy Colon provided me with a great first week!


Well Dustin, we didn't get quite get that month we were hoping for out of Hawkins. Hey look on the bright side. At least Hawkins did manage to contribute one save to our efforts before imploding. And to think, it only cost us a late draft pick.... and of course irreparable damage to our ERA's and WHIP. So worth it. :?

Ahh, good times.

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Hey fist pump Latroy. You suck.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:51 pm

KJ Duke wrote:
Glenneration X wrote:22.5/25.11 - TJ House/Kirk Gibson - A couple of my favored late round pitching flyers. They've both shown signs that I've found intriguing that breakouts this season are possible. I've rostered one or the other, or in this case both, for plenty of my teams. The early returns this first week have been less than encouraging. I'll hold for a bit longer, but I won't wait long before cutting bait if those signs I thought I saw turns out to be mirages.


I think Kirk Gibson is in his mid-50's, but I commend you on taking him over the disaster that is Kyle Gibson. 8-)


I hear ya KJ. An honest mistake. After all, besides Kyle and Kirk sharing the same last name, they both bring to mind unhappy images of baserunners rounding the bases. :(

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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:48 pm

ONLINE MAIN EVENT - PICK 3

During my two days home between my trips to Vegas and NYC there would be no rest for the weary as I was scheduled to draft the 2nd of my NFBC Main Event teams. I'm sure my wife really appreciated that. :? There's a reason why I always bring her back a nice present from the Caesars Palace mall when I return home from Vegas each year.

I had the 3rd pick in this draft where I had to take on a pair of former Main Event Champs including this year's defending Champ, Greg Morgan, as well as 2012 NFBC Champ & current Fanduel millionaire, Dave Potts. Ante Meich, Jason Duponte, Derek Pierson, and Rob Silver were some of the other drafters in this very tough draw.

This is the team that Baseball HQ sponsors for me and that I chronicle for the website. Since I already published a draft analysis article on BHQ, I'll just post the drafted team here and maybe a few summary thoughts at the end.

1.3 - Andrew McCutchen
2.13 - Chris Sale
3.3 - David Price
4.13 - Jonathan Lucroy
5.3 - Albert Pujols
6.13 - Nelson Cruz
7.3 - Jay Bruce
8.13 - Drew Storen
9.3 - Manny Machado
10.13 - Masahiro Tanaka
11.3 - Howie Kendrick
12.13 - Austin Jackson
13.3 - Dellin Betances
14.13 - Desmond Jennings
15.3 - Rougned Odor
16.13 - Derek Holland (Ugh)
17.3 - Mike Fiers
18.13 - Mark Teixeira
19.3 - Jason Castro
20.13 - Latroy Hawkins (No he didn't. Again??? :? )
21.3 - Coco Crisp (Man, this guy never learns, does he?)
22.13 - KYLE (not Kirk) Gibson (though KJ may be right that Kirk woulda been a better option)
23.3 - Wilmer Flores (best part of this team)
24.13 - Jose Ramirez
25.3 - Will Middlebrooks
26.13 - Dillon Gee (2nd best part of this team ;) )
27.3 - Alfredo Simon
28.13 - Emilio Bonifacio
29.3 - Joe Smith
30.13 - Francisco Lindor

I obviously went with the dual aces strategy here and was pretty happy with this team immediately following the draft. Looking back on it now, I still kinda like it. Though the loss of one of my personal faves in Derek Holland, as well as having once again rostered the dynamic duo of Latroy Hawkins and KYLE (not Kirk) Gibson kinda puts a damper on having too much early season enthusiasm, as well as putting a damper on my early season place in the standings. But who knows, maybe things come together for this squad and I can put together a run. It would be nice to be able to write about a team that makes a run at the title on BHQ for once. :D

It's getting late, so I'll write about my final Main Event squad, the one drafted in NYC, and also probably my personal fave of the three tomorrow.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:00 pm

Alright, time to finish these up.

NYC MAIN EVENT - PICK 14

The NYC Main Event was not only the last of my three drafted Mains, but also my very last fantasy baseball draft of the year. I'm already suffering severe withdrawal symptoms. :(

No easy way to end the draft season as well. This was the acknowledged toughest draw of all the NYC drafts with my neighbor Dobies, Modica, Gillis, Lemke, Ante, Ericson, Santucci, and on and on and on in this league. In fact, it was one of the toughest draws of any Main Event league, NYC or elsewhere. Of course, it did have one saving grace, the Massotto factor. Yes, Mikey was in this draft. However, even as a 14-teamer it was a brutal. Add the fact that despite my 1-15 KDS setting, I was awarded the 14th pick, I wasn't feeling that great about my prospects.

Like I wrote in the review of my Vegas Main, I feel that the 1-8 slots had a great edge over the back end drafters this season. And again as I wrote for my Vegas Main, I felt my best shot of pulling out a special team from this tough spot in this tough league was to play it a little different. Though recent drafts convinced me that it was unlikely, my best case scenario and hope was to garner either King Felix or Scherzer, and then be able to pair them with a big hitter out of the first turn. However from that point, I knew I'd have to take some even bigger chances.

I'm typically a risk reward high upside whore when drafting. Though I was relatively satisfied with my previous two Main Event drafts, I did think I played it a little safe... well safe for me. Therefore my hope in this draft was to grab as much upside as possible, risk be damned. Though there were several players I had on this target list, three specific players were at the center of this thought process that I hadn't been able to grab for either of my other two Main Event efforts.... Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson.

I liked all three going into the live draft weekends. However, their meteoric rise up the boards prior to the live weekends continued during these live drafts and took me a little by surprise. They always seemed to be taken well before my initial comfort level and expectations for where they would/should go would allow. Though I wouldn't chase them further up the boards, I had decided if Betts was available at the 3/4 turn, if Bryant was available at the 5/6 turn, and if Pederson was available at the 9/10 turn, I would grab them over maybe some safer choices, hope they live up to their monstrous hype, and hit their astronomical ceilings. Of course there were no guarantees that any of these players would be available at these turns. However, I figured if I was able to pull this off and they did live up to the hype, and if I was also able to surround them with some solid foundation players and a few more high upside types, maybe, just maybe I could put together something special from this tough spot.

1.14 - Edwin Encarnacion - As stated for my Vegas Main review, I'm very high on Encarnacion. I consider him one of "my guys". Power, BA upside, strong lineup, hitter's park, even a few SB's. What's there not to like? However, there was one other option that I needed to think through. Though Scherzer was grabbed the pick right before mine, King Felix was surprisingly still on the board, and as stated earlier I felt he could be a huge key to what I wanted to accomplish in this draft. However, Encarnacion was a big fit as well. I wanted both. I strongly considered just grabbing the King here. However Roy Ericson was drafting right after me at the turn and was the only obstacle to my being able roster both Encarnacion and King Felix. I recalled that he had built his Super Auction team the night before with high dollar offensive players and focused on the next tier of pitchers like Carrasco, Pineda, Cashner, and Richards for his pitching staff. I rolled the dice that his strategy might be the same here and he'd pass on the King for two hitters.

2.2 - Felix Hernandez - My roll of the dice came up a winner. Roy took Hanley and Donaldson and left as safe a proven ace as there is in this game for me to anchor my staff.

3.14 - Zack Greinke - Mookie Betts was still on the board. However, Greinke was the absolute last pitcher in my tier of true aces left on the board. With the upside risk reward pitchers I would be focusing on later, I thought a dual aces strategy built around King Felix and Greinke would make my staff viable no matter how those riskier pitchers played out. I just couldn't pass on Greinke here.

4.2 - Mookie Betts - Mookie went in the 2nd round at the draft table next to mine. More than any other player, Betts soared up boards this spring. Once it was clear that he had won out over Rusney and that this across the board talent would be batting leadoff atop a great lineup in Fenway, and coming off his big spring, there was no slowing down the hype or his rise. I felt lucky to still be able to roster him from this spot. Upside target #1 on board.

5.14 - Victor Martinez - Man, Martinez fell in drafts this spring. His preseason injury and injury history just scared the hell outta the NFBC. However, he was good to go for Opening Day, has always been a reliable BA/moderate power bat when in the lineup, bats cleanup for one of baseball's best lineups, and is coming off a career year. I had a 1B already, but I thought what Martinez brought to the table from this spot in run production, power, and BA protection was worth tying up my corner this early. He wouldn't have made it around the turn as Roy made his displeasure clear when I grabbed him.

6.2 - Kris Bryant - Was there a bigger lightning rod for opposing opinions this spring than Bryant? I thought I was reading a political debate between the Tea Party and a Kennedy liberal the views were so radical from one extreme to the other. One thing's for certain however, Bryant has ridiculous natural power. If his contact rates play close to neutral, he could be a monster. If it doesn't, he could be this year's biggest bust. We'll find out. Either way, he's a perfect fit to how I'm trying to build this team. I didn't realize how unlikely it was that I'd be able to draft him by targeting him at this turn, until walking around looking at the other draft boards during the first break and seeing his name in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Upside target #2 on board.

7.14 - Chris Carter - There weren't a lot of potential 35-40 home run candidates in this year's player pool. I am all over being able to grab one this late. Carter's found his way onto quite a few of my teams as I feel his power is being undervalued. With Encarnacion, Bryant, and Carter rostered, and with Martinez and Betts both potential power contributors, I feel I've built a very strong power base for this team. Time to address other categories.

8.2 - Masahiro Tanaka - Pitching has flown off the boards as the entire mid-tier of pitchers I've liked to grab for my SP2 or 3 in previous drafts had been wiped out. Well, the entire tier except for Tanaka. I've rostered Tanaka on several of my teams. Yes, huge risk, tremendous risk, monster risk. But what about the reward? Coming off his dominant performance last year, Tanaka would likely have been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds this year... if not for the elbow concerns. I know. That's like saying a nuclear reactor in our backyards would make a nice power source if not for the meltdown concerns. The early returns haven't been great, but the velocity readings are still there and several other pitchers in the past have pitched successfully for years with the same elbow injury. If he can pull it together and even approach last year's performance, this is the kinda pick that wins leagues.... or loses them.

9.14 / 10.2 - Salvador Perez / Danny Santana - This was supposed to be the Joc Pederson turn. And he was available...for both picks. Yet though part of the pre-draft focus, I didn't grab him here as planned. I was surprised that Perez and Santana were still on the board and I couldn't pass here on scarce position options that in a vacuum I "expect" as much as if not more from than Pederson. Still, I really struggled with passing on Pederson. His upside is vastly higher than the other two choices, even if the chances of him hitting it is far from a sure bet. I took the full minute to make my picks in both these rounds while considering these options. I had no catcher rostered and Perez was a very solid option with some still remaining upside. I had no middle infielders rostered and Santana filled that need, as well as the need to start acquiring some speed to go with the power I had built earlier. However Pederson was the 3rd piece to the extreme upside puzzle I wanted to build since I first started working on my strategy for this draft. I knew whichever of the three I let go had no chance to make it back to me. What it finally came down to is that if I passed on Perez or Santana, I thought it a huge drop to the next tier of players and expected contributions at their respective positions. While if passing on Pederson, there were other upside OF's I liked, almost as much. So, I passed on Pederson. I've been questioning the decision since making it. I hope I don't end up regretting it.

11.14 / 12.2 - Francisco Rodriguez / Brett Cecil - Closers were starting to go. Being at the turn, I knew if I passed here, I would be left with the dregs once again. I grabbed two remaining options that I thought had a good chance to hold onto the job for a while. Sigh. :? I shoulda waited on the dregs. I hate closers.

13.14 / 14.2 / 15.14 - Steven Souza / Kristopher Davis / Dalton Pompey - When I passed on Joc Pederson for Perez and Santana, these are three of the players who helped me make that choice. I love the upside for each, especially Souza.

16.2 - Derek Holland - :( Sigh. Risk/reward. Unfortunately, sometimes risk wins out big. Though you'd hope to get more than one inning before you find out.

17.14 / 18.4 - Chris Owings / Wilin Rosario - After making the Holland pick, my focus for this turn was to fill out my two remaining open MI positions. I hoped to grab two of either Marcus Semien, Chris Owings, or Micah Johnson. Semien went about 10 picks before me, but both Owings and Micah made it back. At that point, I felt extremely confident I would get both. Roy had used 3 of his top 8 picks on MI's in Hanley, Reyes, and Pedroia and had other needs besides a 4th MI. I felt there was absolutely zero chance he'd take another here. I grabbed Owings first and just waited for Roy to make his two picks before I'd grab Micah. Yet for reasons I still don't get, Roy chose Micah with his 2nd pick of this turn. I was shocked and totally unprepared to take someone else. I scrambled for my full minute and tried to find another upside MI I liked here. Not finding one, I looked at the catcher position and called out Rosario with seconds left on the clock. Terrible pick. I should have grabbed Vogt, but didn't notice him listed at 1B on my draft software. I just wasn't ready. When I asked Roy why he grabbed Micah when his MI slots were all filled and he had several other spots to fill, he said he needed speed and would just switch Hanley to OF. Ok. This pick still pains me. Ahh well.

19.14 / 20.2 / 22.2 - Jimmy Nelson / Shane Greene / TJ House - Three of a handful of upside pitchers I've been targeting and rostering here and there, one or another on many of my teams. For this one, I was able to grab these three. So far so good for Nelson and Greene. Hopefully House can join the party.

21.14 - Kevin Kiermaier - Someone I like more than most and have rostered on many of my teams. A nice skill set with some power, some speed and a nice opportunity.

23.14 / 24.2 - Devon Travis / Odubel Herrera - Having missed out on Micah, I still needed to fill 2B and still felt shy in speed. Here are a couple young upside players eligible at the position who can contribute to the SB ledger that I hope can make me feel lucky for having missed out on Micah.

25.14 / 28.2 / 29.14 - Josh Hamilton / JJ Hardy / Coco Crisp - A small handful of stashes that if I'm able to hold onto may be able to contribute/provide depth later on this season.

26.2 / 30.2 - Alfredo Simon / JA Happ - A couple more pitchers with slightly less upside, but with some potential to contribute when needed.

27.14 - Chris Johnson - Already dropped for Asche, who will also likely be dropped once Bryant is called up...hopefully in 3 more days.

I enjoyed drafting this team. It was a fun strategy to try to make happen, and a simple one at that. Grab aces and chase upside. I do kinda wish I had been more determined to grab Pederson when available and REALLY wish Holland and Cecil had given me more than one inning each in the roles I had drafted them. Still, if I can fill the obvious holes, and the upside I've put together pans out, this could be a team that is as fun for me to follow in season as it was to draft. We'll see.

So there it is. My Main Event draft reviews are finally done, and only 10 days into the season. :D
All that's left is three teams, three hopes, three Chases for the NFBC.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015

Postby Glenneration X » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:39 pm

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Atta boy KYLE (not Kirk) Gibson. Nice bounce back. ;)
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby knuckleheads » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:09 pm

Great analysis, Lowy.

I became a little obsessed with ME ADP this year after my NY ME League 4 had, what I felt was, so many odd (too early/too late) selections.

Your 3-rookies strategy intrigued me as I resigned myself to getting neither Betts nor Bryant due to their expected draft positions.

Of note, Betts had a ME ADP of 52.5, Bryant had a ME ADP of 54.

Your Rnd 6.2 (#77) pick of Bryant was the latest he went in any ME Event draft.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Sat Apr 18, 2015 6:09 am

knuckleheads wrote:Great analysis, Lowy.

I became a little obsessed with ME ADP this year after my NY ME League 4 had, what I felt was, so many odd (too early/too late) selections.

Your 3-rookies strategy intrigued me as I resigned myself to getting neither Betts nor Bryant due to their expected draft positions.

Of note, Betts had a ME ADP of 52.5, Bryant had a ME ADP of 54.

Your Rnd 6.2 (#77) pick of Bryant was the latest he went in any ME Event draft.


Thanks Dave. I enjoyed your draft analysis as well.

Regarding ADP, I do use ADP to get a very rough idea of where a player is typically going before a draft. I then make adjustments in my target area dependent upon my desire/belief in the player and my comfort level on where to draft him. However, as you can tell from my three Main Event drafts posted in this thread, where I'll take a player can often change quite a bit from draft to draft.

Though I was able to get Machado in the 11th round of one draft, I grabbed him in the 9th 4 days later. Austin Jackson in the 14th round one day, in the 12th another. Tanaka end of the 10th one weekend, beginning of the 8th the following. KYLE (not Kirk) Gibson in the 25th round one day, moved up to the 22nd another, then passed on in that same round the next. And on and on. So much more important than ADP or any pre-draft "strategy" for me is draft flow, the available inventory at any pick, and how I've built my team thus far to any point in the draft. I find myself changing course multiple times in a draft or auction, am usually comfortable doing so, and that flexibility I believe serves me well (though my results so far this year would say otherwise :( ).

Those three targets of mine for the NYC Main you mentioned would probably have been better described by me as a "wish list" rather than a draft strategy for where I was "targeting" them. If I honestly was banking my team on them, I would have had to target them, especially Bryant and Pederson, much earlier to assure getting them. At least that's what the recent ADP heading into the draft told me. However, as you can tell, though they were part of my pre-draft plan, for each I refused to jump them earlier than I wanted. I even waited "within the target range" to choose them. For Betts and Bryant, even though they were available at the turns I was willing to draft them, I waited until after the turn to actually make the picks, and in doing so absorbed the risk that Roy might snipe me. And I was OK with that. There were other players I ended up wanting as much if not more at those points before the turn. And in Pederson's case, I even passed on him altogether for two players that were not in my draft plan at all, and even though Pederson was available far later than I probably should have expected. However, that's what draft flow, how I'd built my team to that point, and the remaining inventory convinced me to do. Still remains to be seen how that works out.

By the way, it was a pleasure meeting you in NYC this year and spending some time chatting with you and your wife over steaks at the MtM after-party. One of the highlights of that night for me was being able to finally convince your wife and Massotto's girl about the appeal of auctions by using an analogy replacing the auctioning off of baseball players with the auctioning off of women's shoes. :mrgreen: I felt like a proud teacher. :D

Good luck with your team this year Bud. Looks like a real good one.

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Massotto's girl thought she had these won as Brady shouted out "Going once, going twice, so....", until Dave's wife shouted out a last second all-in bid to roster the Mike Trout of heels.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby knuckleheads » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:39 am

Glenneration X wrote:By the way, it was a pleasure meeting you in NYC this year and spending some time chatting with you and your wife over steaks at the MtM after-party. One of the highlights of that night for me was being able to finally convince your wife and Massotto's girl about the appeal of auctions by using an analogy replacing the auctioning off of baseball players with the auctioning off of women's shoes. :mrgreen: I felt like a proud teacher. :D

Good luck with your team this year Bud. Looks like a real good one.

Image
Massotto's girl thought she had these won as Brady shouted out "Going once, going twice, so....", until Dave's wife shouted out a last second all-in bid to roster the Mike Trout of heels.


Let me just say that the MTM After-Party moved the bar for my wife with fantasy baseball. Two days of shopping, three Broadway shows, and her favorite event of the weekend was by far the MTM After Party. Mike is a gracious and welcoming host and throws a first-class event. He and his girlfriend, you, and the fellas made Tierney feel completely welcome talking baseball for 2 hours.

She's actually been checking in on the standings, and said to me the other night, "I feel invested in this team."

Your coaching on the intricacies of auctioning was hilarious and spot on, and I am pretty sure she is ordering a pair of baseball heels.

For me, the baseball talk that evening was world-class. Perhaps the biggest compliment I can pay to you, Mike, Modica, Edelman, and Jupinka is that I spent maybe 10 minutes talking to Lisa Ann and the rest of the evening talking baseball with you adroit gentlemen.

Tierney has penciled in NY for next year, and has been mentioning a trip to Vegas, too. (Nice sell by the table on that one, too.) If I end up joining 3 or 4 leagues next year, Greg and Tom will owe you a commission.

It was great meeting all of you. Best of luck this season.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:45 am

knuckleheads wrote:Let me just say that the MTM After-Party moved the bar for my wife with fantasy baseball. Two days of shopping, three Broadway shows, and her favorite event of the weekend was by far the MTM After Party. Mike is a gracious and welcoming host and throws a first-class event. He and his girlfriend, you, and the fellas made Tierney feel completely welcome talking baseball for 2 hours.

She's actually been checking in on the standings, and said to me the other night, "I feel invested in this team."

Your coaching on the intricacies of auctioning was hilarious and spot on, and I am pretty sure she is ordering a pair of baseball heels.

For me, the baseball talk that evening was world-class. Perhaps the biggest compliment I can pay to you, Mike, Modica, Edelman, and Jupinka is that I spent maybe 10 minutes talking to Lisa Ann and the rest of the evening talking baseball with you adroit gentlemen.

Tierney has penciled in NY for next year, and has been mentioning a trip to Vegas, too. (Nice sell by the table on that one, too.) If I end up joining 3 or 4 leagues next year, Greg and Tom will owe you a commission.

It was great meeting all of you. Best of luck this season.


Dave, it's great to hear that you and Tierney had such a great time at the afterparty and it's always great to read a post like yours above. It so succinctly yet passionately delivers the message on what makes the live events so special. Other posts following the live event draft season by Doughy and Dustin and others delivered similar messages.

We can all draft online from home, and there's a benefit to that when necessary. However, the live events are so much more than just the drafts. Whether live in Vegas or New York and I'm sure Chicago as well, it's the time around the drafts, spent with great people just as passionate about this hobby as you are, the great conversations with these people, etc., that truly make these events so unique and special.

I hope many who've contemplated attending a live event one day in the future got to read your post, and Doughy's and Dustin's and those from others along a similar vein, and realize what almost all of us that have attended a live event in the past already know. There's nothing like it and personally I wouldn't miss it for twice the number of online drafts. I already can't wait 'til next year. See ya then.
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Quahogs » Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:34 am

knuckleheads wrote:
Let me just say that the MTM After-Party moved the bar for my wife with fantasy baseball. Two days of shopping, three Broadway shows, and her favorite event of the weekend was by far the MTM After Party. Mike is a gracious and welcoming host and throws a first-class event. He and his girlfriend, you, and the fellas made Tierney feel completely welcome talking baseball for 2 hours.

She's actually been checking in on the standings, and said to me the other night, "I feel invested in this team."

Your coaching on the intricacies of auctioning was hilarious and spot on, and I am pretty sure she is ordering a pair of baseball heels.

For me, the baseball talk that evening was world-class. Perhaps the biggest compliment I can pay to you, Mike, Modica, Edelman, and Jupinka is that I spent maybe 10 minutes talking to Lisa Ann and the rest of the evening talking baseball with you adroit gentlemen.

Tierney has penciled in NY for next year, and has been mentioning a trip to Vegas, too. (Nice sell by the table on that one, too.) If I end up joining 3 or 4 leagues next year, Greg and Tom will owe you a commission.

It was great meeting all of you. Best of luck this season.


David, It was great meeting you and the Mrs and putting a face to Knuckleheads...
Now I personally would have tried to increase the face time with Lisa Anne and decrease Lowry's - for the sole purpose of baseball knowledge since Lisa Anne had SOME kind of rudimentary draft ideology as opposed to the Massotto disciple Lowry :D But to echo Lowry's sentiments - extending yourself and getting to these live events, that's what it's all about. The BS-ing hours before during and after these drafts with old friends and new ones is the impetus that keeps me doing these year after year. Best of luck to you this season
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Re: Chasing the NFBC 2015 - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Postby Glenneration X » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:04 pm

Quahogs wrote:David, It was great meeting you and the Mrs and putting a face to Knuckleheads...
Now I personally would have tried to increase the face time with Lisa Anne and decrease Lowry's - for the sole purpose of baseball knowledge since Lisa Anne had SOME kind of rudimentary draft ideology as opposed to the Massotto disciple Lowry :D But to echo Lowry's sentiments - extending yourself and getting to these live events, that's what it's all about. The BS-ing hours before during and after these drafts with old friends and new ones is the impetus that keeps me doing these year after year. Best of luck to you this season


Gasp!!! Now, now Juprinka, it's one thing to state that I have less knowledge than Lisa Anne. I might even agree, especially when it comes to carnal knowledge. :D

But, but, but.... Massotto disciple!!!! :shock: Now that's just not right.



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Now if you're really looking for a Massotto disciple, here ya go....


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....who doubles as Mikey's first drafted pitcher in the Main.
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