Folty Towers of Off Season Numbers

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:01 am

'Projectionists' like to have certain numbers when drafting a team.
The concept seems totally flawed to me. Especially, when we are drafting in the DC Champions format.
If projecting that speed is light in round 32, an addition of Rajai Davis or Jarrod Dyson or Ben Revere(also known as the usual speed suspects) is added to the team.
Now, the projectionists can look at their papers and say they've caught up with speed.
Of course, they haven't.
Their numbers on paper make them feel all gooey inside, but they're forgetting about the application.
In this case, the application would mean that they would have to play a usual suspect.

In real baseball, Managers don't care much for the usual suspects.
They don't hit that well. They don't hit for power. They're hardly worth a platoon.
The usual suspects are part time players.
Playing a part time player during the season is rolling the dice, expecting a damned seven.
The usual suspects will once again accumulate their 30 steals.
Unfortunately, it will be while they are on the drafters bench most of the time.

Projectionists tend to forget a more important aspect of the game.
Even more important than Rajai Davis in the 32nd round, if short on speed.
In-Season Management.
Sometimes it is not all about the numbers.
In fact, sometimes it is about half the numbers....

Last year, I drafted Mike Foltynewicz in the Main Event.
I was sold that he would grow into a better pitcher last year.
I was wrong.
BUT, Folty became a good piece to winning the league.
Here are his final numbers....154 innings...4.79/10/143/1.48
Not what we want out of a starting pitcher.
BUT, still a useable pitcher if used well.
Folty was streaky, better at home, and better against bad teams (imagine that)
So, I limited his use to when pitching well and let the where and who he faced dictate to me whether to start him.
I only used him for 93 of his 154 innings.
But got a slightly lower ERA and WHIP and got a strike out an inning plus eight of his 10 Wins.

I did the same thing with Jhoulys Chacin on many DC teams. Only pitching Chacin when at home.
This is where Sabrs and projectionists miss the boat.
They believe they are looking in the right place for numbers when that is questionable.
There are many, many ways to skin a fantasy cat.
Cats like Folty and Chacin can be summarily dismissed by some and be a blessing to others.

The difference between Rajai Davis and Mike Foltynewicz is that Folty can give clues as to when he may have a good performance.
Not all the time. He'll have a clinker when he shouldn't like every other pitcher.
But, at least we have a clue.
Davis offers no clues.
In fact, his fate is not even in his own hands. It is in his Managers.
In the end, I would rather have the player I could manage more easily during the fantasy season than the player who gives me a false sense of security on paper.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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Re: Folty Towers of Off Season Numbers

Postby California Aces » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:25 am

Nice Article. I used Jesse Chavez last year in 72 IP and got 6 wins, 3.60 era, 1.12 WHIP and 60Ks.
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Re: Folty Towers of Off Season Numbers

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:56 pm

California Aces wrote:Nice Article. I used Jesse Chavez last year in 72 IP and got 6 wins, 3.60 era, 1.12 WHIP and 60Ks.


Perfect example.Ramirez was great for owners using him wisely.

A lot of folks will look at Kyle Gibson in the 35th round of a DC draft and turn their nose at his whole season numbers.
We're not forced to use him over a whole season. Gibson was instrumental over a month's stretch last season when he seemed to win with every outing.
I just looked back, during August and September, Gibson struck out a batter an inning and won six of 11 starts with a 3.50 ERA
This time frame was about the only time I used Gibson in some DC's.
Seasonal ERA 5.07 with a six in nine K rate
For my team, 3.50 and a strike out an inning.
No brag, just fact.

I'm not afraid to take a guy like Gibson, or Sabathia, or Leake, or other established pitchers who will get the ball every five days, despite their numbers.
Remember, those are their numbers, not necessarily YOUR numbers.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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