Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:33 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:I believe the Diamondbacks have a better bullpen than the Dodgers next year if they can find an anchor for it.


Bradley.


I don't think they want that.
They made Rodney fit with Bradley throwing the 'important' innings.
I think they find somebody like Rodney- like or a little better hopefully.
Colome? Nicasio?
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:37 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:I hear you Mike. But if there ever was a team prime for come back, I think it is SF. Yes...much OF help is needed. I like Panik and Crawford better than you. Posey is more than a pretty face with little more around him. Belt is Dan's love child...but I really liked his power profile last year.

Where does Arroyo fit in? Maybe he is the 3B option. So then you are upgrading the OF in the offseason. I still like that pitching staff...totally underperformed (results) last year.

Just throwing dice here...


Belt should be traded.
He should have been traded long ago.
But they keep fooling themselves that he could be a power hitter in that ball park.
He can't.
I like the Giants too.
I believe they have some 'dormant' pieces...
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:44 pm

Dan and Wayne - Love the different perspectives. It’s fun to speculate. Hell, I never saw the Twins as a playoff team at the start of 2017. In fact, as much as I hate to admit it, I did not see my Yanks as anything more than a .500 team coming into the season.

The Giants will be interesting to watch. While they seemingly have money and have lots of spots to upgrade, I wonder how much they will accomplish. Two years ago, they spent a lot of money on Cueto and Samardzija. Last year, they gave Melancon big bucks. Insofar as I can recall, no big contracts are coming off the books. I wonder how much they can afford to do and actually will do this off-season. They have had a declining offense for a few years now and have yet to make a meaningful offensive upgrade for some time. That could and should change now, but tough to see them affording Stanton and what prospects do they have to offer? They are not going to pay $600 million or whatever Boras wants for J.D. Martinez this week. There should be some cheap 1B/power bats, but doubt they are ready to displace Belt. What OF are they signing as free agents and/or what strong OF are they trading for and what are they offering? I don’t doubt they’ll make some moves, but I’m very skeptical that it will be enough to compete in the NL West.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. :roll:

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:45 pm

Over the last four years, Brandon Belt has hit 44 homers on the road. 21 at home.
A trade is best for both Belt and the Giants.
He is not a long distance home run hitter...it is almost like they could really use Giancarlo Stanton :D
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:49 pm

Belt and Cueto and a few dollars since the Marlins would be covering Cueto?
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:56 pm

Wayne or Bryan, or Mike if you'd like to answer too....

What is the Braves starting rotation next year?
It appears they have so many pieces. But I'm sure they don't want to have too much youth to open the season....
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:57 pm

Mike, what are your thoughts on Girardi being let go?
I was shocked.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:03 pm

Nah, if I’m the Marlins, I want young and cheap talent for Stanton. Why pay for Cueto when you’re not that close to winning and want to reduce payroll? Also, they got Bour; not sure they’d even want Belt. Marlins want to unload salary and get cheap, young talent. Think Cardinals’ young pitchers if Stanton willing to play for St. Louis.

Re-reading my posts, you’d think I hate the Giants. I don’t. It’s been a great franchise and have won three rings in recent years. I just feel like they’ve taken a big step back recently (bigger than most people think, I guess) and have neglected their offense and let them get old.

Posey 31
Belt 29
Panik 27
Sandoval 31
Crawford 31
Span 34
Pence 34

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:07 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Belt and Cueto and a few dollars since the Marlins would be covering Cueto?


Seems the Marlins are sold on Bore....so not Belt to the Marlins I would not think.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:17 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Wayne or Bryan, or Mike if you'd like to answer too....

What is the Braves starting rotation next year?
It appears they have so many pieces. But I'm sure they don't want to have too much youth to open the season....


I think you can pencil in Folty, Newcomb, and Teheran. Four and five will be some combo of Fried, Sims, Blair (with a hot spring) and some arm off the FA scrap heap.

Not excited? Me either except for the top three, especially if Newcomb can keep from walking the world. Now about the Gwinnett Whatevertheywillbecalled rotation:

Allard (++FB, ++CB, +CU)
Soroka (++FB, +CB, +CU)
Gohara (+++FB, +SL, -CU)
Touissant (++FB, ++CB, CU)
plus whoever loses from the list above...

The pitching bubble is finally rising in Atlanta....
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:27 pm

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Mike, what are your thoughts on Girardi being let go?
I was shocked.


I was surprised, too. Didn’t see it coming after what arguably was one of his best seasons as a manager.

Spin in New York was that Girardi is too intense and does not relate well to players, particularly younger players. On the one hand, I can see it to some extent. On the other hand, I hate that as a reason for dismissing a pretty successful (although sometimes infuriating) manager. Do we need a camp counselor type?

Another reason cited was Yankees wanted someone more knowledgeable and reliant on sabrmetrics. (Cue Doughboys rant.)

Finally, there was speculation that the Cashman-Girardi relationship wasn’t as good as in prior years. As a fan, I just need them to work together; they don’t need to be BFFs.

Maybe part of it stemmed from Girardi initially playing coy about wanting to come back. He was kind of noncommittal at first, saying it was a long year and we wanted to take time and talk it over with the family. After he was let go, then you heard how much he wanted to come back.

I’m a little disappointed but not at all crushed about it. Just surprised about the timing more than anything else.

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:32 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:Wayne or Bryan, or Mike if you'd like to answer too....

What is the Braves starting rotation next year?
It appears they have so many pieces. But I'm sure they don't want to have too much youth to open the season....


I think you can pencil in Folty, Newcomb, and Teheran. Four and five will be some combo of Fried, Sims, Blair (with a hot spring) and some arm off the FA scrap heap.

Not excited? Me either except for the top three, especially if Newcomb can keep from walking the world. Now about the Gwinnett Whatevertheywillbecalled rotation:

Allard (++FB, ++CB, +CU)
Soroka (++FB, +CB, +CU)
Gohara (+++FB, +SL, -CU)
Touissant (++FB, ++CB, CU)
plus whoever loses from the list above...

The pitching bubble is finally rising in Atlanta....


Would go with Folty, Newcomb, Teheran, Fried and Gohara. Have to put Gohara in there full-time at some point. If Sims or Blair step up, wonder if it’s time to shop Teheran a bit. Colon and Dickey are gone. Time to take off the training wheels. Maybe trade a prospect to Rays for Archer if they think they can compete this year?

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:43 pm

The thing about Gohara is he pitched in four different levels last year, starting the year as a prime member of the Florida Firedogs! I just think the Braves will start him in AAA, though I think the stay will be short.

And as far as training wheels, Gohara will not turn 22 until July 31. Most of the AAA rotation will be 20 going into the season, 21 coming out...collectively most cannot even buy beer!
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:45 pm

Archer would be a great fit for them...
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:12 pm

Edwards Kings wrote:The thing about Gohara is he pitched in four different levels last year, starting the year as a prime member of the Florida Firedogs! I just think the Braves will start him in AAA, though I think the stay will be short.

And as far as training wheels, Gohara will not turn 22 until July 31. Most of the AAA rotation will be 20 going into the season, 21 coming out...collectively most cannot even buy beer!


Good point. Seems like some of these guys have been known to us for awhile, and so it is easy to forget how young they still are. Like what I’ve seen of Gohara so far.

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:17 pm

Works the other way too...

Jose Bautista plays like he is almost done...
Bautista is slightly younger than Nelson Cruz.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:50 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Archer would be a great fit for them...


I have been thinking the same thing. If the Braves like what they see out of Newcomb, control-wise, besides that AAA talent that is on the cusp, these guys below will probably spend some if not all of their year in AA:

RHP Wright (+FB, CB, SL, CU) - Little guy...6'4", 200 lbs
RHP Anderson (+FB, SL, CU) - Wait till this guy lays a little cannoli on...6'3", 170 lbs
LHP Wentz (+FB, CB, CU) - 6'5", 210 lbs
LHP Minter (++FB, SL, CT) - old man of the group at 24, but will be interesting to watch as the Braves will stretch him out a bit in this his second year from TJS.

With all these guys, it will take just a few to make enough arms for a young, talented, projectable Braves starting rotation (hopefully for years to come) with even more making it into lower minors this year. The way Tampa loves controllable young arms, I can see some of these AAA/AA arms being sacrificed to bring Archer in to Atlanta.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:58 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Works the other way too...

Jose Bautista plays like he is almost done...
Bautista is slightly younger than Nelson Cruz.


Yeah...I cannot wait for some pundit to write "...shows no signs of slowing down...." on some of the old guys. Age is a bitch....

Beltre
Martinez
Pujols
Cruz
Zobrist
Kinsler
Encarnacion
Cabrera
Cano
Molina

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:47 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Mike, what are your thoughts on Girardi being let go?
I was shocked.


Dan - Here is a link to an ESPN story today indicating that the Yankees probably would have fired Girardi even if the Yankees had won the World Series:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2142 ... oe-girardi

Definitely sounds like Girardi was found lacking in terms of: (a) relating to and dealing with young players; and (b) an understanding of analytics or at least a willingness to learn. There must not be a ton of love lost here; otherwise, the timing of this article seems a little strange - they fired Girardi and now that they have to kick him when he's down?

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Bronx Yankees » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:58 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:Works the other way too...

Jose Bautista plays like he is almost done...
Bautista is slightly younger than Nelson Cruz.


Nelson Cruz is a like a fine wine that gets better with age.

Strange career. Seemingly hitting peak re health, consistency and stats over the last four years when he's "old" (in a relative sense only). Would like to think there only are "appropriate" reasons for this, but, unfortunately, baseball has proven to me that you never know. Still, when I watch him, his hitting still looks really strong, and being a DH definitely helps on the injury front (although no OF eligibility this year). Anyway, you know an age-related decline is coming at some point, but, damn, it does not look particularly imminent based on last year's results.

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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:08 am

Bronx Yankees wrote:
DOUGHBOYS wrote:Works the other way too...

Jose Bautista plays like he is almost done...
Bautista is slightly younger than Nelson Cruz.


Nelson Cruz is a like a fine wine that gets better with age.

Strange career. Seemingly hitting peak re health, consistency and stats over the last four years when he's "old" (in a relative sense only). Would like to think there only are "appropriate" reasons for this, but, unfortunately, baseball has proven to me that you never know. Still, when I watch him, his hitting still looks really strong, and being a DH definitely helps on the injury front (although no OF eligibility this year). Anyway, you know an age-related decline is coming at some point, but, damn, it does not look particularly imminent based on last year's results.

Mike


I saw his arms in an interview wearing just a 'muscle shirt'.
Reminded me of past interviews with McGwire and Sosa.
I'm sure it wasn't the intent, but it sure brought back memories.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:44 am

Only four players have hit even 50 homers after turning 40...

Bonds-79
Fisk-72
Darrell Evans-60
Winfield-59

Beltre will be 39 next year....
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:50 am

Edwards Kings wrote: And typically line drives have the better chance to be a hit.


That is the generalization. A Sabr slanted generalization :D
Victor Martinez, routinely, is among the top hitters in hard hit balls. As shifts have evolved, those hard hit balls are getting caught more and more often.
Martinez hard hit ball count has gone up, while his average slides.
Martinez, if he were not so old, would be better off trying to change tactics and go opposite field.
A hard hit ball for Martinez, or actually now, ANY ball hit by Martinez, is solely dependent on placement.

Dee Gordon is never among those with hard hit balls (sounds painful).
Gordon enjoys a .300 batting average.
The difference being not only, of course, speed, but there is no one way to play Gordon except to cheat infielders and outfielders in a step or two.
This helps the defense negate the speed factor a bit and increases chances of catching a softly hit ball.
The hard hit balls struck by Gordon will find a fielder quicker or get past them.
If those hard hit balls are struck on the ground, Gordon has less chance to use his most vital resource, speed.
It's the soft balls struck in which Gordon makes his living.

This is part of what I mean about being strictly sabr.
There are reasons for the numbers as well as numbers for the reasons.
Sabrs forget that.

I suggest the Bill James Handbook. Great article in there about hard hit balls.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby headhunters » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:00 am

i think yankee management reverse engineered that dismissal. joe pissed off one of the steinbrenners and they decided to fire him- then came up with those reasons. "too intense" ya- right. it is new york- everyone is intense. doesn't get analytics- please- he went to northwestern. george must be rolling over in his grave.
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Re: Drafting, Injury, and Anticipation of Continuation

Postby Edwards Kings » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:37 am

Image

So I was playing with my SABR and thinking about TB who seems to be in the mood to drop some salary (Archer as we kind of discussed, Longoria mentioned briefly, Colome). Looks like they want to go ahead and stake out that fifth place in the AL East and dare Baltimore to be worse.

The new old adage in baseball is that Tampa always develops good starting pitching, which would I guess take the sting out of losing Cobb and Archer in the same year. I wonder...in the minors, they have the "Man of Many Pitches" Honeywell ready to go (nothing left to prove in Durham and if stays there much longer he will have nightmares of Susan Sarandon's gnarly, geriatric claws reaching out for him), so you have to believe he is one replacement. DeLeon is down there, but he threw about 41 IP last year so you gotta believe the Rays will stretch him out a bit in NC.

With Honeywell perhaps being broken in nearer the back of the rotation, the top kind of defaults to Odoreaters. Not necessarily a good thing. He is in the right park to be a fly-ball pitcher (though those visits to NY, Boston, Baltimore, and Toronto can be a bitch though his home/road splits were actually favorable to the road last year). After that comes Snell, who like Jake is pitching behind most batters due to an inability to find the zip code of the plate, especially early in AB (both with 54% first pitch strikes).

"Take it Easy" Andriese is also a lock I would think if he is back from his "right hip stress reaction". I am not really sure what that really is and I do not know how difficult it is to bounce back from (I assume the degree of difficulty is somewhere between a twisted nut and Monty Stratton). A host of less than desirable options for 5th/injury replacements are out there (Eovaldi, Faria, Pruitt).

Is that enough to keep the Ray pitching magic in place?

The offense is not good with Longoria, so I would not invest heavily in this team without. Matt Duffy should be back (cue duck calls), Brad Miller (can a deflated ball rebound), Hechavarria (will the raise due in arbitration cause the Rays to trade him too?) and whomever at 1B. Souza, Dickerson, Kiermaier and Smith are actually not a bad OF at all, so maybe there is hope.

If the Rays go full-on fire sale (which we will know when they get minor league prospects or major league ready talent for the pieces they trade), that would be good for Adames and Bauers and maybe even Justin Williams.

So the question becomes, if there is a rebuild and no one goes to Tropicana Field to see it, did it really happen?
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