Regression is Giving me Depression

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:57 am

I'm already tired of hearing the word, 'regression'.
Experts love the word. They use it in podcasts, articles, books, whatever.
It makes them sound very smart.
And you know what?
It usually makes them look stupid afterwards.
Ron Shandler still hears about how he predicted Mike Trout would regress. Even crowed about it when Trout got off to a slow start.
Stupid.

'Regression' is 99 percent used on young players. Older players have a track record. Experts use the track record to make projections.
If an older player has a wonderful year, regression is usually not the word used to project the next year.
No, the player will come back to the mean or come back down to earth.
You see, experts like AVERAGE.
It makes their projections easier.
When Adam Dunn hit 40 home runs every year for a stretch, guess what experts projected? 40 HOME RUNS!

Players like Trout, Cody Bellinger, and even Albert Pujols back in the day muddy the waters for experts.
These kids burst upon the Major League scene and act like they own the joint.
No kid should ever do that!
So experts punish them.
They ban them to regression purgatory. Regression depression.

Projectionists have a job to do. I understand that.
My main problem is that they are afraid. Afraid to be bold.
Not one projectionist predicted that Elvis Andrus would hit 20 homers last year. Instead, they go through his past and 'average' expectations for the following year.
How is that suppose to help any fantasy player?
WE CAN DO THAT!
And now that Andrus has hit 20 home runs, not one expert I have seen is predicting MORE than 20 home runs.
They have to weigh his past with his last year.
Again, we can do that.
The most extreme case of 'stuck in the middle with you' (experts theme song) was Jose Bautista.
After topping out at 16 home runs in a utility jobbed career, Bautista busted out with 54 homers in 2010.
First, no scribe predicted that Bautista would hit even 25 homers.
But when hitting 54, that wasn't the case in 2011.
In 2011, they used their 'stuck in the middle' approach and put Bautista down for 30ish home runs.
HOW DOES THAT HELP!?
Bautista hit 43.

This year, less home runs or batting average is forecasted for Bellinger, Joey Gallo, or every other rookie who had the temerity to bust out in the Majors in a big way.
I believe both will hit more homers and bat at a similar or larger average.
I also believe that Andrus will surpass his homer total from last year.
Experts cannot do this.
They lose some type of credibility.
They couldn't forecast that Andrus would hit 20 homers last year, even if feeling in their heart that Andrus would hit 20 home runs.
They are stuck in their averages.

We see projections and hear them everywhere.
Personally, I find almost all of them of no value at all.
I can average numbers.
Here is what I would like from a forecaster.
And I'll use Billy Hamilton as an example

Batting Average-
Previous Best- ,260 (2016)
Previous worst- .225 (2015)
Last year- ,247
Expectation for this year- .265
Expected floor for career- .212
Expected ceiling for career- .280

Stolen Bases-
Previous Best- 59
Previous Worst- 56
Last year- 59
Expectation for this year- 65
Expected Floor for Career- 25
Expected Ceiling for Career- 86

Defining when a certain player will have a great year is fool's play. Nobody could have expected Jose Bautista to hit 54 home runs after having Utility time. And after hitting 54, totals and expectations can be adjusted.
With Billy Hamilton, we can deduce that even though the writer is predicting 65 stolen bases for this year, he can see 86 as a possibility also.
We would like to see if each writer feels that it COULD happen some time down the line.
It would allow him more freedom than the mundane 'stuck in the middle with you' projections.

Heck, it would also help the projectionists.
Instead of Shandler falling on his sword with a one year projection for Trout, he could have fallen back on his ceiling projections. If following experts, the more information, the better. Especially for the 'Yahoo Kids' of the fantasy universe.

One more thing and then I'll get off their backs :)
QUIT TRYING TO BE DOCTORS!
NOBODY knows when a player will get hurt. Nobody.
Some projectionists like to incorporate injuries into their projections.
Why?
It doesn't help anybody.
Justin Turner is being taken as high as the fifth round by some drafters.
Fresh in their minds are Turner having a wonderful post-season and a lot of good press.
The hell of it is that Turner is 34 next year. He has only played over 130 games once in his career.
Had over 500 at bats just once in his career.
But why should a projectionist have to weigh whether or not Turner will get hurt.
The odds would surely be in his favor were he to give Turner 120 games and 400 at bats.
But again, he would just be 'averaging' career expectations.
Why not just base every hitter's expectations on 550 at bats?
Let the reader decide if Turner will be Tulo.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
DOUGHBOYS
 
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Re: Regression is Giving me Depression

Postby NorCalAtlFan » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:02 pm

some "projectionist" do exactlyish that..........
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Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:00 pm

Re: Regression is Giving me Depression

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:08 pm

Projectionists make good theater.....
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
DOUGHBOYS
 
Posts: 11814
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm


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