Ramblings of a Fantasy Lunatic

Postby DOUGHBOYS » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:13 pm

Since joining the NFBC, I have felt that most NFBC drafters are ahead of so-called experts.
Back in the day, experts would dial up statistics from recency bias or other means.
They sounded really smart.
But when it came to drafting, they would fall into the same habits.
I know that a fella from ESPN, Eric Karabell, has not changed some of his drafting habits in the years since I've been looking at his columns.
Not to pick on him alone, because many experts are the same way, but if Karabell is 'teaching' or stating that the same things that worked years ago, work today, he is just wrong.
It shows me that like a coach with an ever-changing game, he is not evolving.
He still believes that slow drafting Closers and pitchers in general, is the secret to fantasy baseball excellence.

As said, he is not alone.
When the industry was taking 15 hitters in the first round, NFBC drafters were taking 12.
Ahead of the curve.
I know that some drafters keep some tendencies. I know some that fade Catchers. Others that do fade Closers.
But, the draft dictates whether to keep those tendencies.
And this is where Karabell and other writers start losing fantasy players.
They teach the same thing every year. As if it is history. As if it is the best path.
What they don't expound on is the differences in each draft.
If a Closer has not been picked and the fifth round begins, there is nowhere for a Karabellian to go.
The best pick would be Kenley Jansen. Under almost any circumstance.
The problem with the continual preaching of fading Closers over the years is that stable Closers have gotten to be a hotter commodity.
Right under his nose.
Jansen will have a job. 'You can let Jansen go and pick up Juan Minaya or Soria later' has become hollow as a sentence.
Within the sentence, he is saying he doesn't know who the White Sox Closer is, but it is better to 'waste' a lower pick on that, then have the stability of Jansen at the higher price.

A touter told me that Rhys Hoskins was the outfielder to own this year.
I asked why.
"His ceiling is enormous! He hit this many homers over this short of time!" and he started speaking Numerish to back up his point.
"Better than Upton around the same time in the draft?", I asked.
"UPTON!" "Why would you take him over Hoskins?"
Hoskins ceiling is mammoth!"
I asked if his floors were close to his ceiling.
I explained that with Hoskins, he had built his production to be possibly (literally) through the roof.
But, what if he looked like the .220 hitter he showed in September.
I asked him to give me two player to represent Hoskins ceiling and floor.
"Giancarlo Stanton without injury for the ceiling."
"Jay Bruce as a floor."
So, why not take Upton and get Upton's floor and ceiling secured, I asked.
"What gain is there to be had with that!"
We need picks like Hoskins to win!"
'Or to lose', I said.

There is something to be said for each side of the equation.
As I told a friend today, if Justin Upton lived in a three story house, we could always expect to find him on the second floor.
If Hoskins owned the same house, we wouldn't know where to find him.
It's tough.
It is a lot easier drafting the relatively unknown Hoskins in the 40th round like last year than drafting his somewhat known skills in the fourth round this year.

And there I go again...
I start a post about Karabell and Closers and end it with Hoskins and Upton.
Good to be back.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

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